Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.</li><li>The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.</li><li>EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.</li></ul>

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.The law has been in place since May 2023, and was due to enter into effect on 30 December 2024.EU DR requires that targeted commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood) and relevant products sold in the EU must not be produced on land that was deforested after 2020.

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.
US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.


[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.</li>
<li>Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.</li>
<li>Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.
Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.
Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.


The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

<ul>
<li>US natural gas prices jumped 19.2% for the week ending 27/Sept, marking the largest weekly increase since November 2023, driven by strong demand and concerns over supply cuts.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.03 (27/Sep) from 1.69 the previous week as put volumes fell by 45.5% WoW, while call volumes declined by 10.1%.</li>
<li>Put OI increased for contracts expiring in October and November, while call OI rose for expiries in December, January, February, and March.</li>
</ul>


US natural gas prices jumped 19.2% for the week ending 27/Sept, marking the largest weekly increase since November 2023, driven by strong demand and concerns over supply cuts.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.03 (27/Sep) from 1.69 the previous week as put volumes fell by 45.5% WoW, while call volumes declined by 10.1%.
Put OI increased for contracts expiring in October and November, while call OI rose for expiries in December, January, February, and March.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/39] Henry Hub Jumps on Shrinking Storage Surplus and Healthy Demand

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved

Disaster Averted - But Not Solved The European Commission has proposed to delay the Deforestation free products regulation (EU DR) by 12 months.

The Commodity Report

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

WTI rose amid heightened supply concerns after Iran's missile attacks on Israel, yet long-term demand worries persist. US nat-gas reached a 16-week...

Mint Finance

The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken Fade the strength in assets connected to the real...

Steno Research

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/39] Henry Hub Jumps on Shrinking Storage Surplus and Healthy Demand

US Nat Gas prices jumped 19.2% last week led by favourable demand forecasts, falling storage surplus and rising LNG exports. The Put/Call volume...

Mint Finance

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