Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.</li>
<li>We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in last week's Int'l Compass (April 23).</li>
<li>Remain overweight Technology which remains our primary focus ever since our April 16 Int'l Compass. We also highlight opportunities within Energy, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.
We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in last week's Int'l Compass (April 23).
Remain overweight Technology which remains our primary focus ever since our April 16 Int'l Compass. We also highlight opportunities within Energy, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities


Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight. Buys in Tech, Energy, Industrials, Materials

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global semiconductor equipment billings grew 10% in 2024 to US$117bn (SEMI), closely tracking the global semi 20% sales expansion, according to WSTS.</li><li>While SEMI’s July 2025 forecast calls for a 7% increase in semiconductor equipment billings to US$126bn this year, we view this projection as conservative.</li><li>The forecast implies an atypically soft 4Q25, with a 20% YoY decline, which contrasts with strong YTD performance, including a robust September (up 35% YoY and 80% QoQ). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global semiconductor equipment billings grew 10% in 2024 to US$117bn (SEMI), closely tracking the global semi 20% sales expansion, according to WSTS.While SEMI’s July 2025 forecast calls for a 7% increase in semiconductor equipment billings to US$126bn this year, we view this projection as conservative.The forecast implies an atypically soft 4Q25, with a 20% YoY decline, which contrasts with strong YTD performance, including a robust September (up 35% YoY and 80% QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Semiconductor Equipment – Steady growth outlook amid Chinas dual forces

Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.</li>
<li>Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500


Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>America has come under heavy criticism from China’s semiconductor, internet and automotive industries for expanding the chip export restriction to target another 136 Chinese companies.</li><li>The move prompted calls for caution when procuring U.S. chips and warnings that the restrictions could cause significant disruption to global supply chains.</li><li>The U.S. Department of Commerce said on Monday that it was adding 140 companies, including 136 Chinese firms, to its “entity list”, effectively banning them from accessing U.S. advanced chip and AI-related technology.</li></ul>

America has come under heavy criticism from China’s semiconductor, internet and automotive industries for expanding the chip export restriction to target another 136 Chinese companies.The move prompted calls for caution when procuring U.S. chips and warnings that the restrictions could cause significant disruption to global supply chains.The U.S. Department of Commerce said on Monday that it was adding 140 companies, including 136 Chinese firms, to its “entity list”, effectively banning them from accessing U.S. advanced chip and AI-related technology.

Backlash From Key Chinese Industries as U.S. Expands Chip Export Restrictions 

China

NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd. is an integrated high-tech company, which manufactures electronics equipments and components, including IC equipments, hybrid integrated circuits and combines with R&D, sales, and services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH)

Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight. Buys in Tech, Energy, Industrials, Materials

Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight; Remain overweight Tech which remains our primary focus ever since April 16. We also highlight...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors - Semiconductor Equipment – Steady growth outlook amid Chinas dual forces

Global semiconductor equipment billings grew 10% in 2024 to US$117bn (SEMI), closely tracking the global semi 20% sales expansion, according to WSTS.

CMB International

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Backlash From Key Chinese Industries as U.S. Expands Chip Export Restrictions

America has come under heavy criticism from China’s semiconductor, internet and automotive industries for expanding the chip export restriction to...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight. Buys in Tech, Energy, Industrials, Materials

Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight; Remain overweight Tech which remains our primary focus ever since April 16. We also highlight...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors - Semiconductor Equipment – Steady growth outlook amid Chinas dual forces

Global semiconductor equipment billings grew 10% in 2024 to US$117bn (SEMI), closely tracking the global semi 20% sales expansion, according to WSTS.

CMB International

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Backlash From Key Chinese Industries as U.S. Expands Chip Export Restrictions

America has come under heavy criticism from China’s semiconductor, internet and automotive industries for expanding the chip export restriction to...

Caixin Global

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...