HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Traditional tea companies are rarely seen in China's secondary market. The most significant issue in the domestic tea industry is product standardization, leading to obvious bottlenecks in future revenue/profit scale. </li>
<li>Despite increasing investment in sales/marketing, financial results of Lancang haven’t shown much improvement. Sales of 1966 products would continue to be under pressure due to weak demand during economic downturn.</li>
<li>Lancang’s financial performance is unsatisfactory, with declining revenue growth and profit margin. We are not optimistic about the Company's prospects. Valuation should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).</a>
</li>
</ul>


Traditional tea companies are rarely seen in China's secondary market. The most significant issue in the domestic tea industry is product standardization, leading to obvious bottlenecks in future revenue/profit scale. 
Despite increasing investment in sales/marketing, financial results of Lancang haven’t shown much improvement. Sales of 1966 products would continue to be under pressure due to weak demand during economic downturn.
Lancang’s financial performance is unsatisfactory, with declining revenue growth and profit margin. We are not optimistic about the Company's prospects. Valuation should be lower than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).



Pre-IPO Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea (PHIP Updates) - Lack of Product Standardization Is the Pain Point

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tian-tu-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36146:1" rel="noopener">Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH)</a> raised around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) raised around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Tian Tu Capital IPO Trading - Subscription Rates Were Lukewarm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tian-tu-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36146:1" rel="noopener">Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$253m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at the updates since our last note and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise up to US$253m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Tian Tu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
In this note, we will look at the updates since our last note and share our thoughts on valuation.


Tian Tu Capital IPO - Even with a Wide Price Range, Upside Seems Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY but trimmed TP to HK$ 7.53, based on 20x FY24E P/E (changed from our DCF model).</li><li>While we are still cautious about the consumer demand in 2H23E, we are also excited about the new franchising programme.</li><li>1H23 result was roughly inline but sales per store was far from exceptional. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Maintain BUY but trimmed TP to HK$ 7.53, based on 20x FY24E P/E (changed from our DCF model).While we are still cautious about the consumer demand in 2H23E, we are also excited about the new franchising programme.1H23 result was roughly inline but sales per store was far from exceptional. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nayuki Holdings Limited (2150 HK) – Guidance Revised and Franchising Is the Key

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Our 1H23 revenue estimate is 8.7% lower than consensus, and we expect 1H23 NPM at breakeven vs. consensus at 5%。</li>
<li>Mainly because teahouse brands in China had suffered the intensified competition from the price war in Coffee industry.</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the intensified competition pressure.</li>
</ul>


Our 1H23 revenue estimate is 8.7% lower than consensus, and we expect 1H23 NPM at breakeven vs. consensus at 5%。
Mainly because teahouse brands in China had suffered the intensified competition from the price war in Coffee industry.
We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the intensified competition pressure.


[Nayuki (2150 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.3) TP Change]: Store Operating Profit Margin Improvement On-Track

China

Naisnow, formerly Nayuki Holdings Ltd., is an investment holding company that operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products under its flagship brand Nayuki and sub-brand Tai Gai. The company also provides store operations management, supply chain management, and franchise operations. Nayuki Holdings Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

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Naisnow (2150 HK)

Pre-IPO Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea (PHIP Updates) - Lack of Product Standardization Is the Pain Point

Due to lack of product standardization, weak marketing, poor cost control, there're obvious growth bottleneck in Lancang's revenue scale. Profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tian Tu Capital IPO Trading - Subscription Rates Were Lukewarm

Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) raised around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Tian Tu Capital IPO - Even with a Wide Price Range, Upside Seems Limited

Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise up to US$253m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will look at the updates since our last note...

Clarence Chu

Nayuki Holdings Limited (2150 HK) – Guidance Revised and Franchising Is the Key

While we are still cautious about the consumer demand in 2H23E, we are also excited about the new franchising programme.

CMB International

[Nayuki (2150 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.3) TP Change]: Store Operating Profit Margin Improvement On-Track

We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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