Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The P/E ratio has risen above 20x this fiscal year from no more than 13x in the previous four years, reflecting successful restructuring and investor enthusiasm for AI. </li>
<li>Profit margins are rising, but remain moderate in absolute terms with room for further improvement. The shares may consolidate, but they do not look overvalued.</li>
<li>Management is aiming for generative AI sales of ¥50 billion in three years time. This is less than 2% of total sales, but a positive indicator for NEC's software business.</li>
</ul>


The P/E ratio has risen above 20x this fiscal year from no more than 13x in the previous four years, reflecting successful restructuring and investor enthusiasm for AI. 
Profit margins are rising, but remain moderate in absolute terms with room for further improvement. The shares may consolidate, but they do not look overvalued.
Management is aiming for generative AI sales of ¥50 billion in three years time. This is less than 2% of total sales, but a positive indicator for NEC's software business.


NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI Is the Spark, Not the Driver

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Last November saw the clean-up trade of INCJ getting out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>. That was 180+mm shares, well over-subscribed.  </li>
<li>Today we have news Hitachi and NEC are getting out of their stakes. That's 123mm shares in an Accelerated Block Offering of about US$2bn. I expect it will go well.</li>
<li>Recent gains in semiconductor stocks globally make this larger discount attractive. I expect a little heaviness but not much. There are index repercussions for international indices.</li>
</ul>


Last November saw the clean-up trade of INCJ getting out of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). That was 180+mm shares, well over-subscribed.  
Today we have news Hitachi and NEC are getting out of their stakes. That's 123mm shares in an Accelerated Block Offering of about US$2bn. I expect it will go well.
Recent gains in semiconductor stocks globally make this larger discount attractive. I expect a little heaviness but not much. There are index repercussions for international indices.


Renesas (6723 JP) ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade as Hitachi/NEC Exit

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> are looking to sell their entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.</li>
<li>The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> trackers in October.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) are looking to sell their entire stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.
The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) trackers in October.


Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> aim to raise around US$2.1bn via a sell-down of  their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The stock has seen a number of deals over the past few years with the most recent one being a cleanup in Nov 2023, which did well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) aim to raise around US$2.1bn via a sell-down of  their stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). 
The stock has seen a number of deals over the past few years with the most recent one being a cleanup in Nov 2023, which did well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Renesas Electronics Placement - Another US$2bn Deal, Momentum and Index Weights Should Help

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI Is the Spark, Not the Driver

The shares are up 2.2X in the past year, but do not look overvalued. AI has sparked investor interest, but efficiency gains are driving profits....

Scott Foster

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Renesas (6723 JP) ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade as Hitachi/NEC Exit

Hitachi and NEC are selling their stakes in Renesas Electronics, with an expected value of $2bn, benefiting from the recent surge in semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

Renesas Electronics Placement - Another US$2bn Deal, Momentum and Index Weights Should Help

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) aim to raise around US$2.1bn via a sell-down of their stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).

Sumeet Singh

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NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI Is the Spark, Not the Driver

The shares are up 2.2X in the past year, but do not look overvalued. AI has sparked investor interest, but efficiency gains are driving profits....

Scott Foster

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Renesas (6723 JP) ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade as Hitachi/NEC Exit

​Hitachi and NEC are selling their stakes in Renesas Electronics, with an expected value of $2bn, benefiting from the recent surge in semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

Renesas Electronics Placement - Another US$2bn Deal, Momentum and Index Weights Should Help

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) aim to raise around US$2.1bn via a sell-down of their stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).

Sumeet Singh

Hitachi and NEC are selling their stakes in Renesas Electronics, with an expected value of $2bn, benefiting from the recent surge in semiconductor...