European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield acquired a 53.12% stake in Neoen for €39.85/share, triggering a mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for a squeeze-out and delisting Neoen.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals were secured from the EU, France, the US, and Australia, addressing antitrust, foreign investment laws, and energy security concerns.</li>
<li>My PT remains €39.85, in line with the price offered by Brookfield and its partners, which I believe is fair. Completion is expected in Q1 2025. Gross spread is 0.33%.Tender.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield acquired a 53.12% stake in Neoen for €39.85/share, triggering a mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for a squeeze-out and delisting Neoen.
Regulatory approvals were secured from the EU, France, the US, and Australia, addressing antitrust, foreign investment laws, and energy security concerns.
My PT remains €39.85, in line with the price offered by Brookfield and its partners, which I believe is fair. Completion is expected in Q1 2025. Gross spread is 0.33%.Tender.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s analysts' call transcript is worth listening to. The math on the takeover maths well. This is a buy on dip. Again.</li>
<li>Those who bought into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a>'s punchy dividend, whether in cash or scrip, the trade has panned out well. </li>
<li>KKR extends its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>. Separately, Bain said it had destroyed confidential data, as requested, but it's unclear how and when that data was destroyed.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s analysts' call transcript is worth listening to. The math on the takeover maths well. This is a buy on dip. Again.
Those who bought into Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s punchy dividend, whether in cash or scrip, the trade has panned out well. 
KKR extends its Offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP). Separately, Bain said it had destroyed confidential data, as requested, but it's unclear how and when that data was destroyed.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Fuji Soft, WH Group

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.</li>
<li>After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.</li>
<li>A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn't be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.</li>
</ul>


Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.
After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.
A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn't be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.


Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

<ul>
<li>On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.</li>
<li>The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.
The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.
The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.


Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

France

Neoen operates as an independent energy company. The Company develops, finances, builds, and manages renewable energy power plants such as solar, wind, and biomass. Neoen serves customers worldwide.

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Neoen (NEOEN FP)

Brookfield/Neoen: Close to Completion

Brookfield acquires majority stake in Neoen, triggers mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for squeeze-out and delisting....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Fuji Soft, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumours. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Brookfield/Neoen: Close to Completion

​Brookfield acquires majority stake in Neoen, triggers mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for squeeze-out and delisting....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Fuji Soft, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumours. The controlling family reportedly won't sell below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield acquires majority stake in Neoen, triggers mandatory tender offer for remaining shares and bonds, aiming for squeeze-out and delisting....