Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainland investors in the past seven days.
We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.
In this week's HK Connect Discovery, we highlight that CRRC's outflow coincides with media reports that highlight the risks of China's investment in high-speed railway. We also see a very substantial southbound flow into Car Inc.

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainland investors in the past seven days.
We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.
In this week's HK Connect Discovery, we highlight that CRRC's outflow coincides with media reports that highlight the risks of China's investment in high-speed railway. We also see a very substantial southbound flow into Car Inc. 

HK Connect Discovery Weekly: CRRC, Car Inc/UCar (2019-01-25)

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Equity Capital Markets

iDreamsky Technology Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5570" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5570:1">iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK)</a> (DSKY) is looking to raise up to US$127m in its upcoming IPO. We have already covered most aspects of the IPO in our previous two insights, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idreamsky-pre-ipo-updated-metrics-but-outlook-remains-grim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26188">IDreamsky (创梦天地) Pre-IPO - Updated Metrics but Outlook Remains Grim</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idreamsky-tech-pre-ipo-review-game-face-on" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25649">IDreamsky Tech Pre-IPO Review - Game Face On</a> .
In this insight, we will elaborate on the company's recent acquisition of Shanghai Huohun, valuation compared to peers, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK) (DSKY) is looking to raise up to US$127m in its upcoming IPO. We have already covered most aspects of the IPO in our previous two insights, IDreamsky (创梦天地) Pre-IPO - Updated Metrics but Outlook Remains Grim and IDreamsky Tech Pre-IPO Review - Game Face On .
In this insight, we will elaborate on the company's recent acquisition of Shanghai Huohun, valuation compared to peers, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

IDreamsky (创梦天地) IPO Review - Valuation of Core Business at Low-End Is More Expensive than Netease

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5570" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5570:1">iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK)</a> is an independent game publisher and developer in China, backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> which a 21% shareholder. iDreamSky is being marketed at a price range of HK$6.0-HK$7.8 ($0.77-$1.00), giving it a potential valuation of $1.3 billion.<div class="content-highlight">We had previously noted that iDreamSky recently pulled off a game-changing acquisition of Huohan to make the IPO a whole lot more palatable. Based on our estimates, iDreamSky is attractive at the low-end of the proposed IPO price range.</div>

iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK) is an independent game publisher and developer in China, backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) which a 21% shareholder. iDreamSky is being marketed at a price range of HK$6.0-HK$7.8 ($0.77-$1.00), giving it a potential valuation of $1.3 billion.We had previously noted that iDreamSky recently pulled off a game-changing acquisition of Huohan to make the IPO a whole lot more palatable. Based on our estimates, iDreamSky is attractive at the low-end of the proposed IPO price range.

IDreamSky IPO Valuation: Ready Player One

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3703" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3703:1">Netdragon Websoft (777 HK)</a> rally cycles have a fast and furious tone to spikes in the past. Today's gap is noteworthy as the market prices in rosier expectations. Many chart points are compelling for a trade higher with strategic overhead resistance pressure. Recent lows were not confirmed by indicators suggesting we just completed a final squeeze of selling momentum and volume. Given the break higher from baseline support we see potential to position for a rally at a time when Asian tech is generally under pressure and we feel September weakness will offer a good/better entry point.

Netdragon Websoft (777 HK) rally cycles have a fast and furious tone to spikes in the past. Today's gap is noteworthy as the market prices in rosier expectations. Many chart points are compelling for a trade higher with strategic overhead resistance pressure. Recent lows were not confirmed by indicators suggesting we just completed a final squeeze of selling momentum and volume. Given the break higher from baseline support we see potential to position for a rally at a time when Asian tech is generally under pressure and we feel September weakness will offer a good/better entry point.

Hong Kong

NetDragon Websoft, Inc. develops online internet games. The Company offers tracks player behaviour and purchasing patterns to design games that cater to their customers' tastes. NetDragon Websoft operates worldwide.

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Netdragon Websoft (777 HK)

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead...

Vermilion Research

HK Connect Discovery Weekly: CRRC, Car Inc/UCar (2019-01-25)

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

IDreamsky (创梦天地) IPO Review - Valuation of Core Business at Low-End Is More Expensive than Netease

iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK) (DSKY) is looking to raise up to US$127m in its upcoming IPO. We have already covered most aspects of the...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IDreamSky IPO Valuation: Ready Player One

iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK) is an independent game publisher and developer in China, backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) which a 21%...

Arun George

NetDragon Ignition and Trade Levels

Netdragon Websoft (777 HK) rally cycles have a fast and furious tone to spikes in the past. Today's gap is noteworthy as the market prices in...

Thomas Schroeder

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