TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Incredible quarter for Parks, with sustainably higher levels of profitability in the cards due to Disney's pricing power.</li>
<li>Streaming is still worrisome, growth driven by bundling and Hotstar+ subs which we don't value as worth much to Disney.</li>
<li>SoTP gets us to ~$155 at best, which is where the stock trades post earnings. Not great risk reward here.</li>
</ul>


Incredible quarter for Parks, with sustainably higher levels of profitability in the cards due to Disney's pricing power.
Streaming is still worrisome, growth driven by bundling and Hotstar+ subs which we don't value as worth much to Disney.
SoTP gets us to ~$155 at best, which is where the stock trades post earnings. Not great risk reward here.


Disney 1Q2022: Knockin It Out of the Park

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Netflix had a mediocre quarter with 8.3 million subscriber additions, around 200k below the market expectations which resulted in a heavy correction in the stock price.</li><li>The management forecasts 2.5 million paid net adds in Q1 along healthy retention with churn down, increased viewing time, and engagement.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

Netflix had a mediocre quarter with 8.3 million subscriber additions, around 200k below the market expectations which resulted in a heavy correction in the stock price.The management forecasts 2.5 million paid net adds in Q1 along healthy retention with churn down, increased viewing time, and engagement.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Jcontentree has hit a home-run with "All of Us Are Dead" zombie drama reaching number one in Netflix Inc's global charts.</li>
<li>According to Flixpatrol on the 31 January, All of Us Are Dead took the top spot in Netflix's global popularity rankings for two consecutive days from its release.</li>
<li>Jcontentree's valuation multiples are likely to rise 20-30% or more in the coming days, driven by the global success of the All of Us Are Dead zombie drama.</li>
</ul>


Jcontentree has hit a home-run with "All of Us Are Dead" zombie drama reaching number one in Netflix Inc's global charts.
According to Flixpatrol on the 31 January, All of Us Are Dead took the top spot in Netflix's global popularity rankings for two consecutive days from its release.
Jcontentree's valuation multiples are likely to rise 20-30% or more in the coming days, driven by the global success of the All of Us Are Dead zombie drama.


Jcontentree: "All of Us Are Dead" Zombie Drama Surges to #1 in Netflix Global Charts

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We normally write a “What’s Working in Equities” report at the end of every month.  </li>
<li>Today, we publish a “What’s not working” a/k/a “What’s working on the short side.”   </li>
<li>In one line, what’s working on the short side are expensive, smaller cap, unprofitable, growth stocks. 
</li>
</ul>


We normally write a “What’s Working in Equities” report at the end of every month.  
Today, we publish a “What’s not working” a/k/a “What’s working on the short side.”   
In one line, what’s working on the short side are expensive, smaller cap, unprofitable, growth stocks. 



<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Disney 1Q2022: Knockin It Out of the Park

Despite a fantastic Parks quarter, which we think offers sustainably higher profits, the higher competitive intensity in streaming means the SoTP...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix Inc. - Investment Thesis

Netflix had a mediocre quarter with 8.3 million subscriber additions, around 200k below the market expectations which resulted in a heavy...

Baptista Research

Jcontentree: "All of Us Are Dead" Zombie Drama Surges to #1 in Netflix Global Charts

Jcontentree has hit a home-run with "All of Us Are Dead" zombie drama reaching number one in Netflix Inc's global charts.

Douglas Kim

What’s Working on the Short Side?

The downdraft in equities has created violent rotations and dislocate risk appetites. Here we look at stock and company characteristics that are...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

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