Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.</li>
<li>The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.</li>
<li>A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…</li>
</ul>


The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.
The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.
A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…


Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes are also hitting all-time highs. Moreover, the S&amp;P 500 has moved to a new high relative to May prices, providing new evidence that the market is likely to continue its trend higher. Given these developments, our outlook continues to move toward the bullish camp. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable stocks within Energy (Refiners) and Health Care (Cardiovascular Products, and Surgical Devices &amp; Equipment).</li></ul>

U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes are also hitting all-time highs. Moreover, the S&amp;P 500 has moved to a new high relative to May prices, providing new evidence that the market is likely to continue its trend higher. Given these developments, our outlook continues to move toward the bullish camp. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable stocks within Energy (Refiners) and Health Care (Cardiovascular Products, and Surgical Devices &amp; Equipment).

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Refiners & Med Device Makers

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.</li>
<li>The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.</li>
<li>Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…</li>
</ul>


A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.
The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.
Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…


Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

With a number of reports on Jio's (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/198" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1">Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL IN)</a> ) tentative entry into the TV content distribution sector, we decided to look at the DTH segment and what it would take for the company to disrupt it. <h2>Sector Overview</h2>Direct-to-Home (DTH) technology allows broadcasters to beam television signals to subscribers via satellites rather than transmit it through cables. DTH services were first approved by the Government of India in November 2000 and three years later, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7710" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7710:1">Dish Tv India Ltd</a>…

With a number of reports on Jio's (Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL IN) ) tentative entry into the TV content distribution sector, we decided to look at the DTH segment and what it would take for the company to disrupt it. Sector OverviewDirect-to-Home (DTH) technology allows broadcasters to beam television signals to subscribers via satellites rather than transmit it through cables. DTH services were first approved by the Government of India in November 2000 and three years later, Dish Tv India Ltd…

Friday Musings: Is Jio Mobilising to Disrupt Direct-To-Home Services Next?

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading...

Sean Maher

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Refiners & Med Device Makers

U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector. Charts highlighted: AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH,...

Vermilion Research

Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have...

Sean Maher

Friday Musings: Is Jio Mobilising to Disrupt Direct-To-Home Services Next?

With a number of reports on Jio's (Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL IN) ) tentative entry into the TV content distribution sector, we decided to look...

Chacko Jacob

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