TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

The headline for Amazon’s quarter was that its revenue growth decelerated 1700bps to 24% YoY , and appears set to decelerate another 1000bps in 3Q. Tough comps people. Tough comps.The company has to invest more and more money to keep up with demand…historically, these are the times you invest in Amazon, when its going through capacity buildouts…its just never happened before that Amazon has had ongoing investment cycles for multiple years. In the end…the absolute size and profitability of the business will be larger. It might just take 2-3 quarters to prove out.In the meantime, its higher margin AWS and Advertising businesses are ACCELERATING. AWS on a $59B runrate, growing 37% (500bps acceleration QoQ), Advertising on a $32B runrate, growing 87% (1400bps acceleration). We value these two businesses at ~2T….which is 30% ahead of the current market cap. We think retail is also worth ~$1T, which is what get us to our $3T valuation, which equates to $6,000 a share. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

The headline for Amazon’s quarter was that its revenue growth decelerated 1700bps to 24% YoY , and appears set to decelerate another 1000bps in 3Q. Tough comps people. Tough comps.The company has to invest more and more money to keep up with demand…historically, these are the times you invest in Amazon, when its going through capacity buildouts…its just never happened before that Amazon has had ongoing investment cycles for multiple years. In the end…the absolute size and profitability of the business will be larger. It might just take 2-3 quarters to prove out.In the meantime, its higher margin AWS and Advertising businesses are ACCELERATING. AWS on a $59B runrate, growing 37% (500bps acceleration QoQ), Advertising on a $32B runrate, growing 87% (1400bps acceleration). We value these two businesses at ~2T….which is 30% ahead of the current market cap. We think retail is also worth ~$1T, which is what get us to our $3T valuation, which equates to $6,000 a share. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Amazon 2Q21: Pay Attention to AWS and Advertising

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments Nassim Taleb, the celebrated Black Swan author and mathematician, has published a paper trashing bitcoin.  In the paper (excerpts below), Taleb claims the theoretical value of bitcoin is zero, saying it is not a currency, can be neither a short or long term store of value, cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge and, “worst of all”, does not constitute “not even remotely” a tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes (i.

Headline Developments Nassim Taleb, the celebrated Black Swan author and mathematician, has published a paper trashing bitcoin.  In the paper (excerpts below), Taleb claims the theoretical value of bitcoin is zero, saying it is not a currency, can be neither a short or long term store of value, cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge and, “worst of all”, does not constitute “not even remotely” a tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes (i.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

In our quest to value <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN</a>, in this insight, we identify key operating metrics that would aid in the revenue build-up. To understand the core drivers behind these operating metrics, we speak to predominantly urban dominated restaurateurs in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Visakhapatnam (Vizag) and Bangalore.  
This insight focuses on building Gross Order Value (GOV), Revenue and Margins will be subject of subsequent insights, post additional channel checks.

In our quest to value Zomato (ZOM IN, in this insight, we identify key operating metrics that would aid in the revenue build-up. To understand the core drivers behind these operating metrics, we speak to predominantly urban dominated restaurateurs in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Visakhapatnam (Vizag) and Bangalore.  
This insight focuses on building Gross Order Value (GOV), Revenue and Margins will be subject of subsequent insights, post additional channel checks. 

Zomato (ZOM IN) | Merchant Surveys - Operating Metrics and a Hidden Predator

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.</li><li>The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232.</li><li>Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention that I am no longer a shareholder of Spotify as I sold my shares today at $243</li></ul>

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232.Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention that I am no longer a shareholder of Spotify as I sold my shares today at $243

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SK Square announced it will not exercise the call option to repurchase minority stake in 11 Street. This is likely to have a positive impact on the company. </li>
<li>SK Square does not need to pay 500 billion won plus 3.5% annualized interest to the financial investors of 11 Street. This will also accelerate sale of 11 Street.</li>
<li>In addition, SK Square announced the merger of TVing and Wavve OTT services. </li>
</ul>


SK Square announced it will not exercise the call option to repurchase minority stake in 11 Street. This is likely to have a positive impact on the company. 
SK Square does not need to pay 500 billion won plus 3.5% annualized interest to the financial investors of 11 Street. This will also accelerate sale of 11 Street.
In addition, SK Square announced the merger of TVing and Wavve OTT services. 


SK Square: Drag Along Rights To Be Exercised to Sell 11 Street + Merger of TVing and Wavve

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Amazon 2Q21: Pay Attention to AWS and Advertising

Retail decelerated ALOT. In the meantime, its higher margin AWS and Advertising businesses are ACCELERATING. We value these two businesses at...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #37

Nassim Taleb, the celebrated Black Swan author and mathematician, has published a paper trashing bitcoin. In the paper, Taleb claims the...

Granite Bay Capital

Zomato (ZOM IN) | Merchant Surveys - Operating Metrics and a Hidden Predator

To understand the core drivers behind these operating metrics, we speak to predominantly urban dominated restaurateurs in Mumbai, Hyderabad,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Spotify 4Q'23 Update

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.

MBI Deep Dives

SK Square: Drag Along Rights To Be Exercised to Sell 11 Street + Merger of TVing and Wavve

According to Chosun Business Daily, the financial investors (Nile Holdings Consortium) want to sell 11st at about 600 billion won (100% stake),...

Douglas Kim

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