Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 6 November, Netmarble announced that it will sell 2.5 million shares of HYBE which represents 569 billion won in amount at current price. </li>
<li>The actual block deal amount is likely to be less than 569 billion won as there will likely be a  block deal discount rate. </li>
<li>We would avoid this deal, mainly because we think HYBE is overvalued relative to its peers. </li>
</ul>


After the market close on 6 November, Netmarble announced that it will sell 2.5 million shares of HYBE which represents 569 billion won in amount at current price. 
The actual block deal amount is likely to be less than 569 billion won as there will likely be a  block deal discount rate. 
We would avoid this deal, mainly because we think HYBE is overvalued relative to its peers. 


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> Index is currently rising for the 3rd week in a row and approaching the Q2 WEEKLY resistance level, but it's a very weak rally.</li>
<li>Between 329 and 331 there id a good area to go SHORT, the index could fall for 2-3 weeks from here, into early November.</li>
<li>A negative close in October would be =3 months down in a row (CC=-3), November in that case would have good odds for a rebound and close up.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 Index is currently rising for the 3rd week in a row and approaching the Q2 WEEKLY resistance level, but it's a very weak rally.
Between 329 and 331 there id a good area to go SHORT, the index could fall for 2-3 weeks from here, into early November.
A negative close in October would be =3 months down in a row (CC=-3), November in that case would have good odds for a rebound and close up.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Frail WEEKLY Rally Is Ending

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kum-yang-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10364:1" rel="noopener">Kum Yang (001570)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-energy-materials-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7709:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Energy Materials (020150)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (293490)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5279:1" rel="noopener">Pan Ocean (028670)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bgf-retail-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26731:1" rel="noopener">BGF retail (282330)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble (251270)</a> have been on investors/traders radars recently.</li>
<li>There could be liquidity events in some of the stocks next month as passive index trackers look to buy/sell the stocks.</li>
<li>Foreign investors have sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-energy-materials-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7709:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Energy Materials (020150 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (293490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5279:1" rel="noopener">Pan Ocean (028670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble (251270 KS)</a> while buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bgf-retail-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26731:1" rel="noopener">BGF retail (282330 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100), Kum Yang (001570), SK Telecom (017670), Lotte Energy Materials (020150), Kakao Games (293490), Pan Ocean (028670), BGF retail (282330), Netmarble (251270) have been on investors/traders radars recently.
There could be liquidity events in some of the stocks next month as passive index trackers look to buy/sell the stocks.
Foreign investors have sold Lotte Energy Materials (020150 KS), Kakao Games (293490 KS), Pan Ocean (028670 KS) and Netmarble (251270 KS) while buying BGF retail (282330 KS). 


Korea - Positioning in Stocks That Could Have Global Passive Flows

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vng-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112269" rel="noopener">VNG IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and VNG’s underlying cash burn.</li>
</ul>



VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.
In VNG IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and VNG’s underlying cash burn.


South Korea

Netmarble Corporation develops and publishes mobile games. The Company develops and publishes casual games, action, sports games, strategy, simulation games, and social casino games. Netmarble offers services worldwide.

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Netmarble (251270 KS)

Block Deal Sale of HYBE by Netmarble

After the market close on 6 November, Netmarble announced that it will sell 2.5 million shares of HYBE. We would avoid this deal, mainly because we...

Douglas Kim

EQD | KOSPI 200 Frail WEEKLY Rally Is Ending

The KOSPI 200 Index is rising for the 3rd week but it's a weak rally. Go SHORT between 329 and 331, hold 2-3 weeks. A negative close in October...

Nico Rosti

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Korea - Positioning in Stocks That Could Have Global Passive Flows

There could be a big reshuffle in Korean passive portfolios in November as stocks are added/deleted. Shorts have increased on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

VNG IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Block Deal Sale of HYBE by Netmarble

After the market close on 6 November, Netmarble announced that it will sell 2.5 million shares of HYBE. We would avoid this deal, mainly because we...

Douglas Kim

EQD | KOSPI 200 Frail WEEKLY Rally Is Ending

​The KOSPI 200 Index is rising for the 3rd week but it's a weak rally. Go SHORT between 329 and 331, hold 2-3 weeks. A negative close in October...

Nico Rosti

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Korea - Positioning in Stocks That Could Have Global Passive Flows

There could be a big reshuffle in Korean passive portfolios in November as stocks are added/deleted. Shorts have increased on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

VNG IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and...

Arun George

The KOSPI 200 Index is rising for the 3rd week but it's a weak rally. Go SHORT between 329 and 331, hold 2-3 weeks. A negative close in October...