Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> could support a higher stock price.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a> was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.
</li>
</ul>


The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag

Weibo (9898 HK)Weibo Corp (WB US) was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) could support a higher stock price.


China East Education (667 HK) was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

<ul>
<li>The epicenter of the Asian ETF selloff last week was Japan, recording an outflow of nearly $100B from equity funds taking the net flows back to breakeven for the YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14882:1" rel="noopener">Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> had positive announcements while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> announced earnings.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> shares are under pressure as the telco sector goes through a price war in cloud services and investors take profits from high dividend names.
</li>
</ul>


The epicenter of the Asian ETF selloff last week was Japan, recording an outflow of nearly $100B from equity funds taking the net flows back to breakeven for the YTD.

Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK) and Swire Properties (1972 HK) had positive announcements while New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) and Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) announced earnings.


China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) shares are under pressure as the telco sector goes through a price war in cloud services and investors take profits from high dividend names.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In July, BYD’s deliveries increased by 31% YoY and Tesla’s deliveries in mainland China increased by 47% YoY.</li>
<li>Alibaba Taobao will soften its “refund only” rule, but Alibaba Hellobike raised its usage price.</li>
<li>New Oriental revenue increased by 32% YoY and TAL revenue increased by 50% YoY in the May quarter.</li>
</ul>


In July, BYD’s deliveries increased by 31% YoY and Tesla’s deliveries in mainland China increased by 47% YoY.
Alibaba Taobao will soften its “refund only” rule, but Alibaba Hellobike raised its usage price.
New Oriental revenue increased by 32% YoY and TAL revenue increased by 50% YoY in the May quarter.


China Consumption Weekly (5 Aug 2024): BYD, Tesla, Seres, Alibaba, New Oriental, TAL

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>New Oriental reported 4QFY24 results: net revenue was up by 32% YoY to US$1,137mn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income declined by 41% YoY to US$36.9mn, below our/consensus estimate of US$62/72mn, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and increased investment in live streaming e-commerce business.</li><li>FY24 total revenue/nonGAAP net income grew by 44/47% YoY to US$4,314/381mn. For 1QFY25E, excluding East Buy financials, management guided total revenue to grow by 31- 34% YoY to US$1,255-1,284mn, and OPM to expand by 200bps YoY.</li><li>We lower FY25-26E non-GAAP earnings forecast by 5-10%, mainly to reflect accelerating capacity expansion and the business adjustment of East Buy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental reported 4QFY24 results: net revenue was up by 32% YoY to US$1,137mn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income declined by 41% YoY to US$36.9mn, below our/consensus estimate of US$62/72mn, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and increased investment in live streaming e-commerce business.FY24 total revenue/nonGAAP net income grew by 44/47% YoY to US$4,314/381mn. For 1QFY25E, excluding East Buy financials, management guided total revenue to grow by 31- 34% YoY to US$1,255-1,284mn, and OPM to expand by 200bps YoY.We lower FY25-26E non-GAAP earnings forecast by 5-10%, mainly to reflect accelerating capacity expansion and the business adjustment of East Buy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental (EDU US) - Core Educational Business Sustained Strong Momentum

<ul>
<li>The top five smartphone producers’ market shares got closer in the first quarter.</li>
<li>The China Immigration Office announced that entry and exit of people increased by 305% YoY in 1Q24.</li>
<li>China Passenger Car Association expected that new energy vehicle sales volume will grow by 37% YoY in April.</li>
</ul>


The top five smartphone producers’ market shares got closer in the first quarter.
The China Immigration Office announced that entry and exit of people increased by 305% YoY in 1Q24.
China Passenger Car Association expected that new energy vehicle sales volume will grow by 37% YoY in April.


China Consumption Weekly (29 Apr 2024): Weird Phone Mkt, Encouraging Car and Travel Mkts

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

Conglomerate stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed this month. Weibo target price is upgraded and Dongfang Electric is intiated BUY. CEE saw a...

David Mudd

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

Japan had massive outflows in equity ETF's for the week. Property firms Seazen and Swire Properties had positive earnings news. New Oriental and...

David Mudd

China Consumption Weekly (5 Aug 2024): BYD, Tesla, Seres, Alibaba, New Oriental, TAL

In July, BYD’s deliveries increased by 31% YoY and Tesla’s deliveries in China increased by 47% YoY. Alibaba Taobao will soften its “refund only”...

Ming Lu

New Oriental (EDU US) - Core Educational Business Sustained Strong Momentum

We lower FY25-26E non-GAAP earnings forecast by 5-10%, mainly to reflect accelerating capacity expansion and the business adjustment of East Buy.

CMB International

China Consumption Weekly (29 Apr 2024): Weird Phone Mkt, Encouraging Car and Travel Mkts

The top five smartphone producers’ market shares got closer in 1Q24. China entry and exit people increased by 305% YoY in 1Q24. Authorities...

Ming Lu

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