Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New Relic reported a solid quarter pushing shares up ~18% during the regular trading session as y/y revenue growth accelerated while gross margin and operating income continued to expand.</li>
<li>We like New Relic’s fundamentals and transformation plan driven across the business. The company raised the outlook for FY23 revenue as 3QFY23 results exceeded guidance. </li>
<li>New Relic invites investors to an Analyst Day in May, where the company will announce the FY24 financial plan details and give more color about the updated GTM strategy. </li>
</ul>


New Relic reported a solid quarter pushing shares up ~18% during the regular trading session as y/y revenue growth accelerated while gross margin and operating income continued to expand.
We like New Relic’s fundamentals and transformation plan driven across the business. The company raised the outlook for FY23 revenue as 3QFY23 results exceeded guidance. 
New Relic invites investors to an Analyst Day in May, where the company will announce the FY24 financial plan details and give more color about the updated GTM strategy. 


New Relic: Impressive 3QFY23. Profitable Growth Accelerated Driven By Efficiency Initiatives

<ul>
<li>We double down on New Relic stock as we see operational improvement and a clear path to non-GAAP profitability. A strong balance sheet will help to survive an economic downturn.</li>
<li>The company will repay 0.5% senior convertible notes in 2023 and is not interested in diluting existing shareholders. New Relic ended 2QFY23 with $833M in cash and cash equivalents.</li>
<li>American activist investor Jana Partners held ~3.2M New Relic shares as of Nov-22. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-relic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16283:1" rel="noopener">New Relic Inc (NEWR US)</a>  shares underperformed in 2022, with shares down ~49%</li>
</ul>


We double down on New Relic stock as we see operational improvement and a clear path to non-GAAP profitability. A strong balance sheet will help to survive an economic downturn.
The company will repay 0.5% senior convertible notes in 2023 and is not interested in diluting existing shareholders. New Relic ended 2QFY23 with $833M in cash and cash equivalents.
American activist investor Jana Partners held ~3.2M New Relic shares as of Nov-22. New Relic Inc (NEWR US)  shares underperformed in 2022, with shares down ~49%


New Relic: $1B+ Revenue By FY24. Cost Discipline Will Drive Profitability

<ul>
<li>Activist hedge fund Jana Partners bought ~2.66M <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-relic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16283:1" rel="noopener">New Relic Inc (NEWR US)</a>  shares in 2Q22 and upped its stake in the tech company to 5.3%.</li>
<li>According to Reuters, New Relic may explore a potential sale following interest from private equity firms. Mr. Galligan, a partner of Jana Partners, joined the New Relic Board in June. </li>
<li>New Relic shares trade at ~4x EV/Rev on our FY23 revenue estimate, and we think Splunk may set a ceiling on the multiple at which New Relic may be acquired. </li>
</ul>


Activist hedge fund Jana Partners bought ~2.66M New Relic Inc (NEWR US)  shares in 2Q22 and upped its stake in the tech company to 5.3%.
According to Reuters, New Relic may explore a potential sale following interest from private equity firms. Mr. Galligan, a partner of Jana Partners, joined the New Relic Board in June. 
New Relic shares trade at ~4x EV/Rev on our FY23 revenue estimate, and we think Splunk may set a ceiling on the multiple at which New Relic may be acquired. 


Will Jana Partners Have Success In Pushing New Relic For A Sale?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/confluent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33443:1" rel="noopener">Confluent (CFLT US)</a>  is an American-based data infrastructure software company and a major contributor to the open-source project Apache Kafka. </li>
<li>Original creators of Apache Kafka founded the company in 2014. Today, Kafka has 5M+ lifetime downloads, and &gt;100,000 organizations use the successful open source project.</li>
<li>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/confluent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33443:1" rel="noopener">Confluent (CFLT US)</a>  is uniquely positioned to benefit from the widespread adoption of Apache Kafka and the growing $50B+ total addressable market. </li>
</ul>



Confluent (CFLT US)  is an American-based data infrastructure software company and a major contributor to the open-source project Apache Kafka. 
Original creators of Apache Kafka founded the company in 2014. Today, Kafka has 5M+ lifetime downloads, and &gt;100,000 organizations use the successful open source project.
We believe Confluent (CFLT US)  is uniquely positioned to benefit from the widespread adoption of Apache Kafka and the growing $50B+ total addressable market. 


Confluent: Harnessing Data In Motion. Initiate At Overweight

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/splunk-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12849:1" rel="noopener">Splunk Inc (SPLK US)</a> , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. </li>
<li>Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.</li>
<li>WSJ reported that Cisco made a <strong>$20B</strong>+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   </li>
</ul>



Splunk Inc (SPLK US) , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. 
Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.
WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   


1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

United States

New Relic, Inc. provides cloud based application performance management solutions for cloud and data center applications. The Company offers a solution including real user, application, and availability monitoring features that enable developers and operations teams to manage web application performance in real-time. New Relic conducts its business in the United States.

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New Relic Inc (NEWR US)

New Relic: Impressive 3QFY23. Profitable Growth Accelerated Driven By Efficiency Initiatives

New Relic surprised investors and reported better-than-expected 3QFY23 results driven by consumption and efficiency initiatives

Andrei Zakharov

New Relic: $1B+ Revenue By FY24. Cost Discipline Will Drive Profitability

We like New Relic’s turnaround story and believe revenue growth will accelerate in the coming years while the company will hit $1B+ revenue this year

Andrei Zakharov

Will Jana Partners Have Success In Pushing New Relic For A Sale?

Our analysis suggests that New Relic may be acquired with a premium of 30%-40% vs. current levels, and Jana Partners will succeed by pushing New...

Andrei Zakharov

Confluent: Harnessing Data In Motion. Initiate At Overweight

We are initiating coverage on Confluent with an Overweight rating and price target of $28, implying a ~50% upside. Fundamentals remain attractive,...

Andrei Zakharov

1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

Cloud ARR growth has accelerated, and we expect Splunk shares may outperform Nasdaq Composite and publicly listed peers in 2022

Andrei Zakharov

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