Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following takeover rumors surrounding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-relic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16283:1" rel="noopener">New Relic Inc (NEWR US)</a> , private equity firms finally agreed to acquire a US-based low-cost observability provider for ~$6.5B.</li>
<li>American private equity firm Francisco Partners and global alternative asset manager TPG offered $87 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-relic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16283:1" rel="noopener">New Relic Inc (NEWR US)</a> share in an all-cash transaction.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-relic-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16283:1" rel="noopener">New Relic Inc (NEWR US)</a> Board of Directors approved the buyout deal, and is expected to close in late 2023 or early 2024.</li>
</ul>


Following takeover rumors surrounding New Relic Inc (NEWR US) , private equity firms finally agreed to acquire a US-based low-cost observability provider for ~$6.5B.
American private equity firm Francisco Partners and global alternative asset manager TPG offered $87 per New Relic Inc (NEWR US) share in an all-cash transaction.
The New Relic Inc (NEWR US) Board of Directors approved the buyout deal, and is expected to close in late 2023 or early 2024.


New Relic Takeover Valuation Analysis: The Buyout Price Looks Reasonable

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a> reported a solid 4QFY23, reflecting a stronger-than-expected non-GAAP operating margin of ~9% and GAAP subscription gross margin of ~79%. </li>
<li>Elastic cloud revenue grew 28% y/y, representing 40% of total revenue. Elastic cloud is scaling well, and margins improved faster-than-anticipated. </li>
<li>We are concerned about slowing H1 FY24 y/y growth in total revenue and failure to achieve the $2B revenue mark in FY25. Price target to $112.</li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US) reported a solid 4QFY23, reflecting a stronger-than-expected non-GAAP operating margin of ~9% and GAAP subscription gross margin of ~79%. 
Elastic cloud revenue grew 28% y/y, representing 40% of total revenue. Elastic cloud is scaling well, and margins improved faster-than-anticipated. 
We are concerned about slowing H1 FY24 y/y growth in total revenue and failure to achieve the $2B revenue mark in FY25. Price target to $112.


Focus On Profitability Expansion And Durable Growth: PT Reduced To $112 From $133

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  </li>
<li>We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. </li>
<li>Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. </li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US)  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  
We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. 
Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. 


Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Private Capital Markets

<p>With $225 million last round financing, Postman became the most valued VC-backed Indian SaaS startup. Mr. Girish Mathrubootham, the co-founder and CEO of Freshworks, also participated in Series D funding round together with new venture capital investors Coatue, Battery Ventures and BOND. We think investors should pay attention to private companies with high revenue growth rates in API Management industry such as Postman and Kong. Both startups are technology unicorns and backed by notable venture capital investors.</p>

With $225 million last round financing, Postman became the most valued VC-backed Indian SaaS startup. Mr. Girish Mathrubootham, the co-founder and CEO of Freshworks, also participated in Series D funding round together with new venture capital investors Coatue, Battery Ventures and BOND. We think investors should pay attention to private companies with high revenue growth rates in API Management industry such as Postman and Kong. Both startups are technology unicorns and backed by notable venture capital investors.

Postman. The Fastest Growing VC-Backed Provider of API Platform

<ul>
<li>Splunk shares outperformed in 2023 and rose ~69% as total ARR exceeded $4B, operating loss narrowed, and FCF margin improved. The company executed well to drive long-term durable growth.</li>
<li>Over the past 2 years, Splunk transformed itself into a cloud company. In 2022, WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer. However, no deal was on the table. </li>
<li>Following M&amp;A rumors, the company’s cloud transition, and strong fundamentals, Cisco offered a $157 per share to acquire Splunk in a $28B mega all-cash deal on September 21, 2023. </li>
</ul>


Splunk shares outperformed in 2023 and rose ~69% as total ARR exceeded $4B, operating loss narrowed, and FCF margin improved. The company executed well to drive long-term durable growth.
Over the past 2 years, Splunk transformed itself into a cloud company. In 2022, WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer. However, no deal was on the table. 
Following M&amp;A rumors, the company’s cloud transition, and strong fundamentals, Cisco offered a $157 per share to acquire Splunk in a $28B mega all-cash deal on September 21, 2023. 


Splunk and $28B Mega Deal: Will Cisco Overpay For San Francisco-Based Software Company?

United States

New Relic, Inc. provides cloud based application performance management solutions for cloud and data center applications. The Company offers a solution including real user, application, and availability monitoring features that enable developers and operations teams to manage web application performance in real-time. New Relic conducts its business in the United States.

New Relic Inc (NEWR US)

New Relic Takeover Valuation Analysis: The Buyout Price Looks Reasonable

Private equity firms Francisco Partners and TPG have agreed to acquire New Relic for ~$6.5B, with the deal expected to close in late 2023 or early...

Andrei Zakharov

Focus On Profitability Expansion And Durable Growth: PT Reduced To $112 From $133

Elastic remains my top pick in the observability and search space, and I see the potential for revenue growth re-acceleration in 2024.

Andrei Zakharov

Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Elastic is a high-profile search technology company and we believe current valuations look attractive for long-term investors

Andrei Zakharov

Postman. The Fastest Growing VC-Backed Provider of API Platform

As API Management market is booming and Postman could raise $225 million in a new funding round, we believe that investors should pay attention to...

Andrei Zakharov

Splunk and $28B Mega Deal: Will Cisco Overpay For San Francisco-Based Software Company?

Despite a transaction price of $157 per share offered by Cisco to acquire Splunk in a $28B mega deal, investors should take profits now.

Andrei Zakharov

New Relic Takeover Valuation Analysis: The Buyout Price Looks Reasonable

​Private equity firms Francisco Partners and TPG have agreed to acquire New Relic for ~$6.5B, with the deal expected to close in late 2023 or early...

Andrei Zakharov

Focus On Profitability Expansion And Durable Growth: PT Reduced To $112 From $133

Elastic remains my top pick in the observability and search space, and I see the potential for revenue growth re-acceleration in 2024.

Andrei Zakharov

Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Elastic is a high-profile search technology company and we believe current valuations look attractive for long-term investors

Andrei Zakharov

Postman. The Fastest Growing VC-Backed Provider of API Platform

As API Management market is booming and Postman could raise $225 million in a new funding round, we believe that investors should pay attention to...

Andrei Zakharov

Splunk and $28B Mega Deal: Will Cisco Overpay For San Francisco-Based Software Company?

Despite a transaction price of $157 per share offered by Cisco to acquire Splunk in a $28B mega deal, investors should take profits now.

Andrei Zakharov

Private equity firms Francisco Partners and TPG have agreed to acquire New Relic for ~$6.5B, with the deal expected to close in late 2023 or early...