Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses</li>
<li>However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost</li>
<li>Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish</li>
</ul>


New World announced FY25 results, market reaction was initially negative, due to losses to shareholders.  Stock was down 10% post open but rebounded quickly to recover all the losses
However, we think the market has neglected the other positives: strong contract sales, resilient IP earnings, improved total debt, stabilized gearing and lower borrow cost
Market is forward-looking, we think NWD, as a leveraged play, will benefit the most in rate cut cycle.  At current valuation (0.12x PB) – we continue to stay bullish


A Contrarian View on New World: Market Is Forward-Looking, Bet on Leveraged Play in Rate Cut Cycle

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>New World Development's (NWD) FY 2024-25 results were weak, with the company reporting another large net loss of HKD 16.3 bn (after the HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.</li>
<li>Underlying business performance was also soft, as core operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 13% y-o-y.</li>
<li>That said, OCF was strong and FCF was positive. This was supported by higher property deliveries in Hong Kong, lower capex (for land and construction) and G&amp;A expenses, as well as the stoppage of dividend payments and perpetual distributions.</li>
</ul>


New World Development's (NWD) FY 2024-25 results were weak, with the company reporting another large net loss of HKD 16.3 bn (after the HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.
Underlying business performance was also soft, as core operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 13% y-o-y.
That said, OCF was strong and FCF was positive. This was supported by higher property deliveries in Hong Kong, lower capex (for land and construction) and G&amp;A expenses, as well as the stoppage of dividend payments and perpetual distributions.


New World Development - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025</li>
<li>Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission</li>
<li>Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS</li>
</ul>


The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025
Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission
Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS


RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

<ul>
<li>This "rescue package" announcement late last month came as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a>, and the ensuing optics were not great.</li>
<li>Media reports are now coming in that NWD is reportedly seeking to sell - or accelerate the sale - of its real estate projects in China. </li>
<li>That makes sense. The refinancing afforded NWD some breathing space. However, to strengthen/bolster its balance sheet, NWD needs to offload assets. Yet pinning down a "fair" valuation will take time. </li>
</ul>


This "rescue package" announcement late last month came as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) for New World Development (17 HK), and the ensuing optics were not great.
Media reports are now coming in that NWD is reportedly seeking to sell - or accelerate the sale - of its real estate projects in China. 
That makes sense. The refinancing afforded NWD some breathing space. However, to strengthen/bolster its balance sheet, NWD needs to offload assets. Yet pinning down a "fair" valuation will take time. 


NWD (17 HK): The Strings Attached To Latest Debt Financing

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

A Contrarian View on New World: Market Is Forward-Looking, Bet on Leveraged Play in Rate Cut Cycle

After FY25 results, NWD was down 10% post Monday's open but recovered all the losses. We are forward looking and think the worst is behind us -...

Jacob Cheng

New World Development - Earnings Flash - FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

New World Development's (NWD) FY 2024-25 results were weak, with the company reporting another large net loss of HKD 16.3 bn (after the HKD...

Lucror Analytics

RE Stock Implications from Fed's Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

Investors should see through Fed's 25bps rate cut and HK's Policy Address, and focus on macro development, geopolitical risks, as well as sector...

Jacob Cheng

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

NWD (17 HK): The Strings Attached To Latest Debt Financing

Landlords need to materially reduce rents to kickstart the retail/F&B sector, translating to lower yields, lower implied property valuations, and...

David Blennerhassett

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