Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nwd-17-hk-edging-towards-a-bailout" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:238341" rel="noopener">NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout</a>, I mentioned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> was reportedly in negotiations with the Hong Kong Airport Authority on its 11 Skies project.</li>
<li>In its FY26 results, ahead of the national holiday, NWD posted an HK$18.3bn writedown as part of an early termination agreement of the project with the AAHK.</li>
<li>NWD was expected to pay rent on 11 Skies of at least HK$1.8bn/annum from 2028 through to 2066; therefore, there is some consolation here from the termination.</li>
</ul>


In NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout, I mentioned New World Development (17 HK) was reportedly in negotiations with the Hong Kong Airport Authority on its 11 Skies project.
In its FY26 results, ahead of the national holiday, NWD posted an HK$18.3bn writedown as part of an early termination agreement of the project with the AAHK.
NWD was expected to pay rent on 11 Skies of at least HK$1.8bn/annum from 2028 through to 2066; therefore, there is some consolation here from the termination.


<ul>
<li>A consortium comprising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-properties-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13028:1" rel="noopener">CSI Properties (497 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-standard-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17128:1" rel="noopener">Asia Standard International Group (129 HK)</a>, and Cheung Chung-kiu, applied to the Town Planning Board to redevelop “Harbourside HQ”  into two residential towers.</li>
<li>The Planning Department previously indicated no objection to the application. However, Hong Kong's Town Planning Board rejected the proposal last Friday.</li>
<li>Vacancy rates for HK commercial properties remain elevated. 25% for Harbourside HQ. Yet, rezoning sets a precedent that cannot easily be reversed (as and) when economic conditions rebound.</li>
</ul>


A consortium comprising CSI Properties (497 HK), Asia Standard International Group (129 HK), and Cheung Chung-kiu, applied to the Town Planning Board to redevelop “Harbourside HQ”  into two residential towers.
The Planning Department previously indicated no objection to the application. However, Hong Kong's Town Planning Board rejected the proposal last Friday.
Vacancy rates for HK commercial properties remain elevated. 25% for Harbourside HQ. Yet, rezoning sets a precedent that cannot easily be reversed (as and) when economic conditions rebound.


Town Planning Board's Rezoning Rejection Is The Right Call

<ul>
<li>Embattled property developer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0917/2026091701553.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a> the spin-off and separate listing of a REIT on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The spin-off comprises the mixed-use property (comprising Shanghai K11 Art Mall and Shanghai K11 ATELIER NWT), one of NWD flagship PRC assets.</li>
<li>Trading at a trailing P/B 0.074x. That pretty much says it all. The impact from the spin-off, if completed, will be minimal. This remains an avoid. </li>
</ul>


Embattled property developer New World Development (17 HK) has proposed the spin-off and separate listing of a REIT on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
The spin-off comprises the mixed-use property (comprising Shanghai K11 Art Mall and Shanghai K11 ATELIER NWT), one of NWD flagship PRC assets.
Trading at a trailing P/B 0.074x. That pretty much says it all. The impact from the spin-off, if completed, will be minimal. This remains an avoid. 


New World Dev (17 HK)'s Shanghai-Listed REIT Is A Drop In The Bucket

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 3-8, 2026

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q FY26 operating statistics suggest that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK)</a> is outperforming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> due to its Hong Kong exposure.</li>
<li>Since entering 2026, Luk Fook has outperformed Chow Tai Fook by a significant margin of 9pp. We believe such a trend will continue for the rest of the year. </li>
<li>Our "Long Luk Fook, Short Chow Tai Fook" strategy is further supported by Luk Fook's cheaper PER and PEG multiples. </li>
</ul>


The 4Q FY26 operating statistics suggest that Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK) is outperforming Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) due to its Hong Kong exposure.
Since entering 2026, Luk Fook has outperformed Chow Tai Fook by a significant margin of 9pp. We believe such a trend will continue for the rest of the year. 
Our "Long Luk Fook, Short Chow Tai Fook" strategy is further supported by Luk Fook's cheaper PER and PEG multiples. 


China Pair Trade: Long Luk Fook (590 HK), Short Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

NWD (17 HK) Terminates Airport Mega Mall

NWD is, bit by bit, deleveraging to offset its massive debt obligations. Still too early, in my view, to be picking up shares, despite a P/B <0.1x.

David Blennerhassett

Town Planning Board's Rezoning Rejection Is The Right Call

Vacancy rates for HK commercial properties remain elevated. Yet, rezoning sets a precedent that cannot easily be reversed (as and) when economic...

David Blennerhassett

New World Dev (17 HK)'s Shanghai-Listed REIT Is A Drop In The Bucket

I'd still avoid NWD. This latest deleveraging proposal, if completed, will only make a modest dent. In a normal world, the liquidators would have...

David Blennerhassett

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 3-8, 2026

This note is a weekly (Oct 3-8, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Pair Trade: Long Luk Fook (590 HK), Short Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)

Luk Fook issued a positive profit alert, saying that FY26 net profit will grow by 80-90%, well ahead of Chow Tai Fook's 45-55% growth. For 2H FY26...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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