HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. </li>
<li>Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> are the two potential best bets.</li>
</ul>


With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.

Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.


HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>Next week is going to be huge due to US election taking place on November 5 and China’s NPC standing committee meeting from Nov 4- Nov 8</li>
<li>This will have huge implications on the global financial markets access all asset classes</li>
<li>We think Hong Kong and China property will benefit from these events and the risk reward profile is attractive</li>
</ul>


Next week is going to be huge due to US election taking place on November 5 and China’s NPC standing committee meeting from Nov 4- Nov 8
This will have huge implications on the global financial markets access all asset classes
We think Hong Kong and China property will benefit from these events and the risk reward profile is attractive


Short Note: Position for Trump Trade and China Stimulus – Buckle up for Next Week

<ul>
<li>After Fed initiated a rate cut cycle in September, we expect the Fed will cut another 25bps in November meeting</li>
<li>Hong Kong CE John Lee delivered his policy address, and the pro-growth measures will support property market recovery</li>
<li>Industry fundamentals are improving and real estate stocks remain attractive in terms of valuation</li>
</ul>


After Fed initiated a rate cut cycle in September, we expect the Fed will cut another 25bps in November meeting
Hong Kong CE John Lee delivered his policy address, and the pro-growth measures will support property market recovery
Industry fundamentals are improving and real estate stocks remain attractive in terms of valuation


HK Property Update:  The Fed, the Policy Address and the Physical Market

<ul>
<li>HK and China RE stocks on average rallied 20% and 174% respectively, since the US started rate cut and China’s huge economic stimulus</li>
<li>Based on trading flows, positioning, and valuation, it is not too late to chase the rally.  The timing, the language and the form of Chinese policy announcements are un-precedented</li>
<li>Don’t fight against Beijing!  We analyze upcoming catalysts and risks.  Next Tuesday is a key time to watch due to potential policy window and trading resumption of Chinese equities. </li>
</ul>


HK and China RE stocks on average rallied 20% and 174% respectively, since the US started rate cut and China’s huge economic stimulus
Based on trading flows, positioning, and valuation, it is not too late to chase the rally.  The timing, the language and the form of Chinese policy announcements are un-precedented
Don’t fight against Beijing!  We analyze upcoming catalysts and risks.  Next Tuesday is a key time to watch due to potential policy window and trading resumption of Chinese equities. 


What to Do with Hong Kong and China Property Stocks After a Crazy Week? Upcoming Catalysts and Risks

<ul>
<li>The wait is finally over.  The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut in September meeting, kick- starting a new rate cut cycle</li>
<li>The rate cut is an absolute game changer for Hong Kong real estate.  Physical market will recover with lower mortgage rate and companies will enjoy lower borrow rate</li>
<li>With the macro backdrop in US and China, Hong Kong is well positioned for as strong re-rating with mega catalysts ahead – Buy HK real estate, especially SHKP and NWD</li>
</ul>


The wait is finally over.  The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut in September meeting, kick- starting a new rate cut cycle
The rate cut is an absolute game changer for Hong Kong real estate.  Physical market will recover with lower mortgage rate and companies will enjoy lower borrow rate
With the macro backdrop in US and China, Hong Kong is well positioned for as strong re-rating with mega catalysts ahead – Buy HK real estate, especially SHKP and NWD


HK RE Series (4) With Macro Backdrop in US & China, HK Is Positioned for a Strong Rerating, Buy Now!

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

With the Fed hinting at a slower rate cut path, the beneficiaries mentioned in this Insight will turn to suffer more. The names with the highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Short Note: Position for Trump Trade and China Stimulus – Buckle up for Next Week

Next week is going to be huge with US Presidential election and China's NPC standing committee meeting taking place, both of which will have...

Jacob Cheng

HK Property Update: The Fed, the Policy Address and the Physical Market

On the back of 1) Fed's rate cut cycle, 2) HK Policy Address, and 3) improving industry fundamentals, we remain positive for HK property stocks,...

Jacob Cheng

What to Do with Hong Kong and China Property Stocks After a Crazy Week? Upcoming Catalysts and Risks

After a crazy week, we think it is not too late to chase the rally, based on trading flows, investor's positioning and valuation. The timing,...

Jacob Cheng

HK RE Series (4) With Macro Backdrop in US & China, HK Is Positioned for a Strong Rerating, Buy Now!

Under the Fed's rate cut in US and huge economic stimulus in China, we think Hong Kong is well positioned for a rerating. Real estate will benefit...

Jacob Cheng

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