Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a></strong> has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong residential property prices declined 7% in 2023 and are down &gt;20% from the 2021 peak in 2021. The average price of offices also declined ~7% in 2023.</li>
<li>Scrapping property cooling measures, such as the special stamp duty applied to homes resold within 24 months, have been rumoured, to push up housing prices. </li>
<li>In today's annual budget, we got those. And then some. </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong residential property prices declined 7% in 2023 and are down &gt;20% from the 2021 peak in 2021. The average price of offices also declined ~7% in 2023.
Scrapping property cooling measures, such as the special stamp duty applied to homes resold within 24 months, have been rumoured, to push up housing prices. 
In today's annual budget, we got those. And then some. 


Hong Kong: Stamp Duties Axed; Mortgage Rules Relaxed

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> stock has continued to drop and the decrease in market cap should result in selling from passive trackers at the end of the month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> has underperformed its peers and now trades at cheaper valuations on most parameters.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to sell over 100m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development</a>. That could provide liquidity for investors that see value and for shorts to cover their positions.</li>
</ul>



New World Development (17 HK) stock has continued to drop and the decrease in market cap should result in selling from passive trackers at the end of the month.

New World Development (17 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at cheaper valuations on most parameters.
Passive trackers will need to sell over 100m shares of New World Development. That could provide liquidity for investors that see value and for shorts to cover their positions.


New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we summarized NWD’s FY2023 results.  We think the gearing and balance sheet, the biggest concern that market has, has been clearly addressed</li>
<li>NWD has announced disposal of its stake in NWS, and will have more corporate actions to come.  The dividend expectation is reset</li>
<li>We view most of the negatives are priced in at current valuation.  NWD is much better than a Chinese developer, and should not be trading at 0.19x PB</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we summarized NWD’s FY2023 results.  We think the gearing and balance sheet, the biggest concern that market has, has been clearly addressed
NWD has announced disposal of its stake in NWS, and will have more corporate actions to come.  The dividend expectation is reset
We view most of the negatives are priced in at current valuation.  NWD is much better than a Chinese developer, and should not be trading at 0.19x PB


NWD 17 HK: FY23 Results Update, to Reset and Transform, and a Beta Play if Rate Expectation Peaks

<ul>
<li>NWD has the highest gearing among all HK real estate names.  It has significantly underperformed since the rate hike cycle begun.  Now it has the biggest potential to rebound</li>
<li>The stock is trading at attractive valuation, 0.27x P/B, like a distressed Chinese developer.  The major market concerns are potential earnings downgrade and dividend cut</li>
<li>I am quite convicted on the stock for rebound given 1) company has clear de-leveraging plan 2) no plans for equity-raise 3) lots of corporate actions ahead to unlock value</li>
</ul>


NWD has the highest gearing among all HK real estate names.  It has significantly underperformed since the rate hike cycle begun.  Now it has the biggest potential to rebound
The stock is trading at attractive valuation, 0.27x P/B, like a distressed Chinese developer.  The major market concerns are potential earnings downgrade and dividend cut
I am quite convicted on the stock for rebound given 1) company has clear de-leveraging plan 2) no plans for equity-raise 3) lots of corporate actions ahead to unlock value


New World Development(17 HK):High Leverage in HKRE but Likely the First to Rebound if Rate Peaks Out

Hong Kong

New World Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, provides contracting services, property management, and transportation services.  The Company also operates infrastructure business, telecommunication services, department stores, hotels and restaurants, and media and technology business.

New World Development (17 HK)

StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

I might have been a tad premature suggesting that NWD will eke out gains after the government abandoned the property cooking measures. One wonders...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong: Stamp Duties Axed; Mortgage Rules Relaxed

The standout beneficiaries from these latest policy measure are the usual suspects - Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK), Henderson Land (12 HK) - and...

David Blennerhassett