Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newmont completed a USD 2 billion debt tender, reflecting its ongoing debt-reduction strategy. Total debt fell from USD 6.4 billion in 2023 to USD 1.4 billion currently.</li>
<li>As the world’s largest gold miner and the only one in the S&amp;P 500, Newmont’s scale, portfolio reforms, cost discipline, and strong margins reinforce its industry leadership.</li>
<li>Strong metal prices, elevated gold, and a bullish options market, combined with a Sharpe ratio of 3.68, position Newmont to outperform peers and deliver efficient risk-adjusted returns to investors.</li>
</ul>


Newmont completed a USD 2 billion debt tender, reflecting its ongoing debt-reduction strategy. Total debt fell from USD 6.4 billion in 2023 to USD 1.4 billion currently.
As the world’s largest gold miner and the only one in the S&amp;P 500, Newmont’s scale, portfolio reforms, cost discipline, and strong margins reinforce its industry leadership.
Strong metal prices, elevated gold, and a bullish options market, combined with a Sharpe ratio of 3.68, position Newmont to outperform peers and deliver efficient risk-adjusted returns to investors.


From Debt to Dominance: How Newmont Is Redefining Gold Mining

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.</li>
<li>
 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.</li>
<li>
Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash</li>
</ul>



 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.

 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.

Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash


Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

<ul>
<li>Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.</li>
<li>Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt's tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.</li>
<li>At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.</li>
</ul>


Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.
Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt's tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.
At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.


Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

<ul>
<li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> recorded a second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2bn on a realized gold price of $4,414/oz; full-year 2026 guidance of 5.3Moz reaffirmed.</li>
<li>
Operating leverage intact: realized gold up 33% YoY against 4% growth in absolute CAS; $3.4bn net cash funds buybacks without strain.</li>
<li>
Stock trades at 10.1x P/E and 5.5x EV-EBITDA, with almost USD 4.3 Bn of buybacks still to come and a net cash position of USD 3.4 Bn. FCF Yield 11%. </li>
</ul>


Newmont Mining (NEM US) recorded a second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2bn on a realized gold price of $4,414/oz; full-year 2026 guidance of 5.3Moz reaffirmed.

Operating leverage intact: realized gold up 33% YoY against 4% growth in absolute CAS; $3.4bn net cash funds buybacks without strain.

Stock trades at 10.1x P/E and 5.5x EV-EBITDA, with almost USD 4.3 Bn of buybacks still to come and a net cash position of USD 3.4 Bn. FCF Yield 11%. 


Newmont Mining (NEM US): Q2 FY26 Results, Record Second Quarter FCF Despite Softer Gold Price

United States

Newmont Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces and markets gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Newmont serves customers worldwide.

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Newmont (NEM AU)

From Debt to Dominance: How Newmont Is Redefining Gold Mining

A deep dive into Newmont’s strategic reforms, including debt reduction and portfolio optimization, its disciplined financial management,...

Mint Finance

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

Debt-free mid-tier gold producer on 0.53x P/NAV, funding four North American growth projects from Mount Milligan and Öksüt cash flow, with Thompson...

Sameer Taneja

Newmont Mining (NEM US): Q2 FY26 Results, Record Second Quarter FCF Despite Softer Gold Price

Softer gold pricing and Cadia downtime trimmed Q2 earnings, but record Q2 free cash flow of $2.2bn and $3.4bn net cash keep the buyback-led return...

Sameer Taneja

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Market Cap (USDm)

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From Debt to Dominance: How Newmont Is Redefining Gold Mining

A deep dive into Newmont’s strategic reforms, including debt reduction and portfolio optimization, its disciplined financial management,...

Mint Finance

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

Debt-free mid-tier gold producer on 0.53x P/NAV, funding four North American growth projects from Mount Milligan and Öksüt cash flow, with Thompson...

Sameer Taneja

Newmont Mining (NEM US): Q2 FY26 Results, Record Second Quarter FCF Despite Softer Gold Price

Softer gold pricing and Cadia downtime trimmed Q2 earnings, but record Q2 free cash flow of $2.2bn and $3.4bn net cash keep the buyback-led return...

Sameer Taneja

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...