HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.</li>
<li>Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.</li>
<li>However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.</li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.
Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.
However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 - Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Paladin announcement surprises after lack of information in the morning</li><li>Greatland raises $500 million for Newmont's Telfer, with potential deferred payments</li><li>Telfer nearing end of its life, but potential for new opportunities with Greatland's involvement</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Paladin announcement surprises after lack of information in the morningGreatland raises $500 million for Newmont's Telfer, with potential deferred paymentsTelfer nearing end of its life, but potential for new opportunities with Greatland's involvementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Newmont Corporation reported strong second quarter results, keeping the company well-aligned with its 2024 guidance and reinforcing its position to improve financial performance as the year progresses.</li><li>In the quarter under review, Newmont achieved a production of 1.6 million ounces of gold, alongside 477,000 gold equivalent ounces from other minerals including copper, leading to a solid cash flow generation of $1.4 billion from operations and $594 million in free cash flow.</li><li>These figures underscore the company's robust operational achievements despite the usual challenges faced in the mining sector.</li></ul>

Newmont Corporation reported strong second quarter results, keeping the company well-aligned with its 2024 guidance and reinforcing its position to improve financial performance as the year progresses.In the quarter under review, Newmont achieved a production of 1.6 million ounces of gold, alongside 477,000 gold equivalent ounces from other minerals including copper, leading to a solid cash flow generation of $1.4 billion from operations and $594 million in free cash flow.These figures underscore the company's robust operational achievements despite the usual challenges faced in the mining sector.

Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? - Major Drivers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.</li>
<li>Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. </li>
<li>MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.


United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 - Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind

Zijin's strong growth in 25Q3 driven by high gold price/acquisitions. Our greatest concern is not fundamental factors but the selling caused by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Greatland copy the NST Playbook

The announcement of a Paladin vote was unexpected, along with TSX-listed g mining news, updates on Bowen coking coal and troubled BCB miner, a...

Money of Mine

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? - Major Drivers

Newmont Corporation reported strong second quarter results, keeping the company well-aligned with its 2024 guidance and reinforcing its position...

Baptista Research

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

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Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 - Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind

​Zijin's strong growth in 25Q3 driven by high gold price/acquisitions. Our greatest concern is not fundamental factors but the selling caused by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Greatland copy the NST Playbook

The announcement of a Paladin vote was unexpected, along with TSX-listed g mining news, updates on Bowen coking coal and troubled BCB miner, a...

Money of Mine

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? - Major Drivers

Newmont Corporation reported strong second quarter results, keeping the company well-aligned with its 2024 guidance and reinforcing its position...

Baptista Research

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

Zijin's strong growth in 25Q3 driven by high gold price/acquisitions. Our greatest concern is not fundamental factors but the selling caused by...