Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> recorded Q1 FY26 revenue of $158.4M (+100% YoY); net income of $34.7M (+369% YoY); gold price tailwind drove record AISC margin of $3,751/oz.</li>
<li>This insight follows our initiation on 10th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oceanagold-philippines-inc-ogp-pm-another-cheap-play-on-gold-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:226242" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. (OGP PM): Another Cheap Play On Gold Price</a>, flagging the company as a high-yield play on gold price.</li>
<li>At PHP 37.30, OGP trades at 4.7x FY26e EV/EBITDA and 9.2x FY26e P/E with 10.9% dividend yield; materially undervalued.</li>
</ul>



OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) recorded Q1 FY26 revenue of $158.4M (+100% YoY); net income of $34.7M (+369% YoY); gold price tailwind drove record AISC margin of $3,751/oz.
This insight follows our initiation on 10th March, OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. (OGP PM): Another Cheap Play On Gold Price, flagging the company as a high-yield play on gold price.
At PHP 37.30, OGP trades at 4.7x FY26e EV/EBITDA and 9.2x FY26e P/E with 10.9% dividend yield; materially undervalued.


OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) Q1FY26: Net Cash And Trading At A ~11% Yield On 4,500 USD/Oz Gold

Key themes:<ul><li>Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3</li><li>Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14</li><li>Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19</li></ul>

Key themes:Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) Q1FY26: Net Cash And Trading At A ~11% Yield On 4,500 USD/Oz Gold

OGP: Q1 FY26 - record gold price drives 100%+ revenue growth YoY; FCF $80M/qtr; Net Cash and a 10.9%. dividend yield with gold price at 4,500 USD/oz.

Sameer Taneja

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Key themes: Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

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