Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Harmony Gold delivered strong earnings and margin expansion, driven by higher gold prices and improved grades across key underground assets.</li>
<li>The company is expanding into copper via CSA Mine and Eva, aiming to diversify production and enhance long-term cash flows.</li>
<li>Valuations remain attractive, though risks include commodity price volatility, South African exposure, and integration of new international assets.</li>
</ul>


Harmony Gold delivered strong earnings and margin expansion, driven by higher gold prices and improved grades across key underground assets.
The company is expanding into copper via CSA Mine and Eva, aiming to diversify production and enhance long-term cash flows.
Valuations remain attractive, though risks include commodity price volatility, South African exposure, and integration of new international assets.


Harmony Gold (HAR SJ / HMY US): Strong Results, Copper Diversification, Attractive Valuation

<ul>
<li>Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.</li>
<li>Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.</li>
<li>Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.</li>
</ul>


Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.
Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.
Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.


Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. </li>
<li>A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level</li>
</ul>


Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level


Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. </li>
<li>The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.</li>
<li>Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.


S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Harmony Gold (HAR SJ / HMY US): Strong Results, Copper Diversification, Attractive Valuation

Harmony Gold's strong earnings driven by gold prices, expanding into copper for diversification, with attractive valuations but risks to consider.

Rahul Jain

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Harmony Gold (HAR SJ / HMY US): Strong Results, Copper Diversification, Attractive Valuation

​Harmony Gold's strong earnings driven by gold prices, expanding into copper for diversification, with attractive valuations but risks to consider.

Rahul Jain

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

​Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

Harmony Gold's strong earnings driven by gold prices, expanding into copper for diversification, with attractive valuations but risks to consider.

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...