Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Deregulation's Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.</li>
<li>Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.</li>
<li>Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.</li>
</ul>


Deregulation's Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.
Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.
Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.


Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

<ul>
<li>Major corporations and states will continue driving green energy demand, with renewable energy commitments independent of federal policy.</li>
<li>International green energy firms in Europe and Asia will attract U.S. investment and technologies as supportive policies and consistent demand make these markets appealing.</li>
<li>Despite an <em>"independent fed"</em> lower interest rates are more likely under Trump, which might more than compensate policy changes as investment costs rather than operational costs drive renewables </li>
</ul>


Major corporations and states will continue driving green energy demand, with renewable energy commitments independent of federal policy.
International green energy firms in Europe and Asia will attract U.S. investment and technologies as supportive policies and consistent demand make these markets appealing.
Despite an "independent fed" lower interest rates are more likely under Trump, which might more than compensate policy changes as investment costs rather than operational costs drive renewables 


How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Recent improvements in solar and battery technologies have been driven by advances in materials science, manufacturing techniques, and system efficiency.</li>
<li>Solid-State batteries replace the liquid electrolyte in traditional lithium-ion batteries with a solid electrolyte, energy density, and charging speeds. They are seen as a game-changer, especially for electric vehicles.</li>
<li>Both solar and battery technologies are becoming cheaper, making renewable energy more accessible and economically viable.</li>
</ul>


Recent improvements in solar and battery technologies have been driven by advances in materials science, manufacturing techniques, and system efficiency.
Solid-State batteries replace the liquid electrolyte in traditional lithium-ion batteries with a solid electrolyte, energy density, and charging speeds. They are seen as a game-changer, especially for electric vehicles.
Both solar and battery technologies are becoming cheaper, making renewable energy more accessible and economically viable.


Improvement in Solar and Battery Technology

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

United States

NextEra Energy, Inc. provides sustainable energy generation and distribution services. The Company generates electricity through wind, solar, and natural gas. Through its subsidiaries, NextEra Energy also operates multiple commercial nuclear power units.

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Nextera Energy (NEE US)

Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

Trump's re-election sparks a policy rodeo of deregulation, tariffs, and tax cuts, but focus should be on structural trends as that will always...

Pyari Menon

How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

States and corporations drive U.S. green energy demand. Interest rates, and innovations rather than Trump admin policies will shape renewables...

Pyari Menon

Improvement in Solar and Battery Technology

Advances in materials science and manufacturing are driving improvements in solar and battery technologies, making renewable energy more...

Alex Ng

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

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Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

Trump's re-election sparks a policy rodeo of deregulation, tariffs, and tax cuts, but focus should be on structural trends as that will always...

Pyari Menon

How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

States and corporations drive U.S. green energy demand. Interest rates, and innovations rather than Trump admin policies will shape renewables...

Pyari Menon

Improvement in Solar and Battery Technology

​Advances in materials science and manufacturing are driving improvements in solar and battery technologies, making renewable energy more...

Alex Ng

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Advances in materials science and manufacturing are driving improvements in solar and battery technologies, making renewable energy more...