Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI advancements will increase data center power demand by 160% by 2030, consuming 8% of U.S. electricity.</li>
<li>A single ChatGPT query uses 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, compared to 0.3 watt-hours for a Google search.</li>
<li>2 of the 5 top performing stocks year-to-date in the S&amp;P 500 are utility companies Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy. Utility sector has gained 6.7% in 2024. </li>
</ul>


AI advancements will increase data center power demand by 160% by 2030, consuming 8% of U.S. electricity.
A single ChatGPT query uses 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, compared to 0.3 watt-hours for a Google search.
2 of the 5 top performing stocks year-to-date in the S&amp;P 500 are utility companies Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy. Utility sector has gained 6.7% in 2024. 


AI Surge Increases Power Consumption Leading to Energy Shifts

<ul>
<li>
Tesla Tops Storage: Tesla dominates North American battery storage (25% market share) as renewables rise, deploying a record 4,053 MWh in Q1 2024.</li>
<li>
Explosive Industry Growth: U.S. battery storage market projected for a staggering 30.5% CAGR until 2030, driven by clean energy transition.</li>
<li>
Forefront of Innovation: CATL revealed TENER, a mass-producible energy storage system with zero degradation for five years achieving 430Wh/L density. Innovation to continue fueling growth.</li>
</ul>



Tesla Tops Storage: Tesla dominates North American battery storage (25% market share) as renewables rise, deploying a record 4,053 MWh in Q1 2024.

Explosive Industry Growth: U.S. battery storage market projected for a staggering 30.5% CAGR until 2030, driven by clean energy transition.

Forefront of Innovation: CATL revealed TENER, a mass-producible energy storage system with zero degradation for five years achieving 430Wh/L density. Innovation to continue fueling growth.


Tesla Charges Ahead: Energy Storage Leader Drives Record Revenue in Booming Industry

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>A combination of strong demand growth, portfolio diversification, and strategic expansion has helped NextEra Energy post solid financial results for the first quarter of 2024.</li><li>The company reported an 8.3% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share, driven largely by the performance of its Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and Energy Resources segments.</li><li>FPL's earnings per share increased $0.04 year-over-year, the primary driver being a growth of approximately 11.5% in the company's regulatory capital year-over-year.</li></ul>

A combination of strong demand growth, portfolio diversification, and strategic expansion has helped NextEra Energy post solid financial results for the first quarter of 2024.The company reported an 8.3% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share, driven largely by the performance of its Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and Energy Resources segments.FPL's earnings per share increased $0.04 year-over-year, the primary driver being a growth of approximately 11.5% in the company's regulatory capital year-over-year.

NextEra Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage - A Blend of Stability and Growth in Renewable Energy! - Major Drivers

United States

NextEra Energy, Inc. provides sustainable energy generation and distribution services. The Company generates electricity through wind, solar, and natural gas. Through its subsidiaries, NextEra Energy also operates multiple commercial nuclear power units.

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Nextera Energy (NEE US)

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

AI Surge Increases Power Consumption Leading to Energy Shifts

AI is a power guzzler. A ChatGPT query uses 2.9 watt-hours, versus 0.3 for a Google search. Rising energy demand puts clean energy and grid...

Mint Finance

Tesla Charges Ahead: Energy Storage Leader Drives Record Revenue in Booming Industry

As renewables surge, Tesla leads storage market with rising revenue. CATL's energy system, with zero-degradation, leads innovation with massive...

Mint Finance

NextEra Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage - A Blend of Stability and Growth in Renewable Energy! - Major Drivers

A combination of strong demand growth, portfolio diversification, and strategic expansion has helped NextEra Energy post solid financial results...

Baptista Research

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