Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,230/1,222 points (25-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,247 points (10-day EMA)/1,255 points.</li><li>External factors are slightly negative, as global financial markets return to the "wait-and-see" mode, awaiting signals on the Fed's interest rate direction, such as in the July Fed meeting minutes (results expected late tonight) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Friday's Fed symposium.</li><li>Domestic factors are also slightly negative, as positive catalysts supporting the index remain limited.</li></ul>

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,230/1,222 points (25-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,247 points (10-day EMA)/1,255 points.External factors are slightly negative, as global financial markets return to the "wait-and-see" mode, awaiting signals on the Fed's interest rate direction, such as in the July Fed meeting minutes (results expected late tonight) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Friday's Fed symposium.Domestic factors are also slightly negative, as positive catalysts supporting the index remain limited.

To Soften, Awaiting the US FOMC Minutes and the Fed Meeting

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt20.40, based on a required return of 8.7% (previously Bt16.30 and 10.8%), reflecting a new MRP assumption of 5.26% (previously 6.83%).</li><li>The current share price offers about 12% upside to the new fair value.</li><li>The long-term growth outlook is expected to be in line with the industry (EPS growth for 2025-27E projected at a CAGR of 13%), while the tactical risk has shifted from neutral to limited upside after the share price rose approximately 8% since our last report.</li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt20.40, based on a required return of 8.7% (previously Bt16.30 and 10.8%), reflecting a new MRP assumption of 5.26% (previously 6.83%).The current share price offers about 12% upside to the new fair value.The long-term growth outlook is expected to be in line with the industry (EPS growth for 2025-27E projected at a CAGR of 13%), while the tactical risk has shifted from neutral to limited upside after the share price rose approximately 8% since our last report.

Tidlor Holdings - In-Line Earnings; Well-Controlled Asset Quality

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt16.30 (previously Bt17.20), based on a required return of 10.8% (previously 9.9%), reflecting updated macro assumptions, with an Rf of 1.47% and MRP of 6.83% (previously 2.07% and 5.58%).</li><li>The long-term growth outlook is in line with the industry, with EPS growth expected at a CAGR of 13% during 2025- 27E, while the tactical downside risk remains neutral.</li><li>TIDLOR’s net profit for 2Q25E is expected at Bt1.25bn (+14.7% YoY, +2.8% QoQ), with the company scheduled to announce results on August 7-8, 2025.</li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt16.30 (previously Bt17.20), based on a required return of 10.8% (previously 9.9%), reflecting updated macro assumptions, with an Rf of 1.47% and MRP of 6.83% (previously 2.07% and 5.58%).The long-term growth outlook is in line with the industry, with EPS growth expected at a CAGR of 13% during 2025- 27E, while the tactical downside risk remains neutral.TIDLOR’s net profit for 2Q25E is expected at Bt1.25bn (+14.7% YoY, +2.8% QoQ), with the company scheduled to announce results on August 7-8, 2025.

Tidlor Holdings - Expect 2Q25E Earnings Growth Both YoY and QoQ...

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics (Thailand) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

<ul><li>We reinstate our recommendation on TIDLOR as Neutral following its shareholder restructuring and re-listing under Tidlor Holdings, with a 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt17.20.</li><li>Regarding the fundamentals, the share price offers 8.2% upside to our fair value (FV), while the tactical view suggests a neutral risk profile.</li><li>Long-term growth is in line with the industry average, with net profit expected to grow at a 12.8% CAGR during 2025-2027E, driven by lower provisioning as asset quality improves</li></ul>

We reinstate our recommendation on TIDLOR as Neutral following its shareholder restructuring and re-listing under Tidlor Holdings, with a 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt17.20.Regarding the fundamentals, the share price offers 8.2% upside to our fair value (FV), while the tactical view suggests a neutral risk profile.Long-term growth is in line with the industry average, with net profit expected to grow at a 12.8% CAGR during 2025-2027E, driven by lower provisioning as asset quality improves

Tidlor Holdings - Restructuring to Enhance Capital Management

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

To Soften, Awaiting the US FOMC Minutes and the Fed Meeting

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,230/1,222 points (25-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,247 points (10-day...

Krungthai XSpring

Tidlor Holdings - In-Line Earnings; Well-Controlled Asset Quality

We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt20.40, based on a required return of 8.7% (previously Bt16.30 and 10.8%)

Krungthai XSpring

Tidlor Holdings - Expect 2Q25E Earnings Growth Both YoY and QoQ...

TIDLOR’s net profit for 2Q25E is expected at Bt1.25bn (+14.7% YoY, +2.8% QoQ), with the company scheduled to announce results on August 7-8, 2025.

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes, plus DELTA capping. Impact on the adds is bigger and positioning appears smaller. The deletes are down a lot and there could...

Brian Freitas

Tidlor Holdings - Restructuring to Enhance Capital Management

We reinstate our recommendation on TIDLOR as Neutral following its shareholder restructuring and re-listing under Tidlor Holdings, with a 12-month...

Krungthai XSpring

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