Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We switch to a Neutral rating (previously Buy) after the stock price surged 9% since our last report (Nov. 13, 2024), weakening the tactical view to very limited upside risk (vs. limited downside risk previously).</li><li>Fundamentally, we maintain a buy recommendation with the same fair value (FV) of Bt20.10, based on an 8.0% required return, implying +15% upside from the market price.</li><li>The long- term growth is now expected to align with the industry average (adjusted to an industry-based benchmark).</li></ul>

We switch to a Neutral rating (previously Buy) after the stock price surged 9% since our last report (Nov. 13, 2024), weakening the tactical view to very limited upside risk (vs. limited downside risk previously).Fundamentally, we maintain a buy recommendation with the same fair value (FV) of Bt20.10, based on an 8.0% required return, implying +15% upside from the market price.The long- term growth is now expected to align with the industry average (adjusted to an industry-based benchmark).

Ngern Tid Lor - Lower Provisions in 4Q24E

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>Currently, we see one expected change, but since the market cap reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see one expected change, but since the market cap reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: One Change Possible; Delta on Thin Ice Again

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, anticipating window dressing ahead of the fiscal year-end.</li><li>For the weekly strategy, we recommend buying, as the market's return on investment remains attractive, particularly in the banking and insurance sectors.</li><li>These factors lead us to believe that stocks in the commercial banking sector have the greatest potential to outperform in 1Q25; as such, we recommend a Buy rating.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, anticipating window dressing ahead of the fiscal year-end.For the weekly strategy, we recommend buying, as the market's return on investment remains attractive, particularly in the banking and insurance sectors.These factors lead us to believe that stocks in the commercial banking sector have the greatest potential to outperform in 1Q25; as such, we recommend a Buy rating.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Cal-Comp Electronics (Thailand) / Index Rebalance

Cal-Comp Electronics (Thailand) (CCET TB)

<ul>
<li>There will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be positioning in all the stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cal-comp-electronics-thailand-ef79c197-e6a6-4130-8221-aced0c735b11" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20764:1" rel="noopener">Cal Comp Electronics Thailand (CCET TB)</a> will have the largest passive buying a percentage of free float and could be the stock to watch.</li>
</ul>


There will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 December.
All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be positioning in all the stocks.

Cal Comp Electronics Thailand (CCET TB) will have the largest passive buying a percentage of free float and could be the stock to watch.


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

Ngern Tid Lor - Lower Provisions in 4Q24E

We switch to a Neutral rating (previously Buy) after the stock price surged 9% since our last report (Nov. 13, 2024), weakening the tactical view...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: One Change Possible; Delta on Thin Ice Again

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) has already appeared in the Market Surveillance Measure (MSM) list during the current reference period and it...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Window Dressing (Santa Claus Rally)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rise, anticipating window dressing ahead of the fiscal year-end. For the weekly strategy, we recommend...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀

There are 4 changes for the SET50, in line with forecast. Cal Comp float is limited, and the stock could move higher - the stock should also be...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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