Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, as the 4Q24 earnings growth (+16% YoY, +1% QoQ) was in line with our expectations, supported by lower provisioning and a rebound in loan growth QoQ.</li><li>From a fundamental perspective, the recommendation remains buy.</li><li>The fair value (FV) remains unchanged at Bt20.10, based on a required return of 8.0%, representing upside of approximately +15% from the market price. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, as the 4Q24 earnings growth (+16% YoY, +1% QoQ) was in line with our expectations, supported by lower provisioning and a rebound in loan growth QoQ.From a fundamental perspective, the recommendation remains buy.The fair value (FV) remains unchanged at Bt20.10, based on a required return of 8.0%, representing upside of approximately +15% from the market price. 

NGERN TID LOR - In-Line 4Q24 Earnings; Better Asset Quality

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Although Asian bourses traded mixed, the SET climbed strongly, quickly reaching 1,278.63 points as buying interest flowed into blue-chip stocks despite the lack of new positive catalysts.</li><li>The index stayed firmly above the 1,250–1,230 support zone and began to rebound.</li><li>However, as trading volume remains light and the rebound still requires clearer positive confirmation, we recommend buying on dips and selling on rises.</li></ul>

Although Asian bourses traded mixed, the SET climbed strongly, quickly reaching 1,278.63 points as buying interest flowed into blue-chip stocks despite the lack of new positive catalysts.The index stayed firmly above the 1,250–1,230 support zone and began to rebound.However, as trading volume remains light and the rebound still requires clearer positive confirmation, we recommend buying on dips and selling on rises.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 2, 2025

<ul><li>We switch to a Neutral rating (previously Buy) after the stock price surged 9% since our last report (Nov. 13, 2024), weakening the tactical view to very limited upside risk (vs. limited downside risk previously).</li><li>Fundamentally, we maintain a buy recommendation with the same fair value (FV) of Bt20.10, based on an 8.0% required return, implying +15% upside from the market price.</li><li>The long- term growth is now expected to align with the industry average (adjusted to an industry-based benchmark).</li></ul>

We switch to a Neutral rating (previously Buy) after the stock price surged 9% since our last report (Nov. 13, 2024), weakening the tactical view to very limited upside risk (vs. limited downside risk previously).Fundamentally, we maintain a buy recommendation with the same fair value (FV) of Bt20.10, based on an 8.0% required return, implying +15% upside from the market price.The long- term growth is now expected to align with the industry average (adjusted to an industry-based benchmark).

Ngern Tid Lor - Lower Provisions in 4Q24E

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

NGERN TID LOR - In-Line 4Q24 Earnings; Better Asset Quality

We maintain a Neutral rating, as the 4Q24 earnings growth (+16% YoY, +1% QoQ) was in line with our expectations, supported by lower provisioning...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 2, 2025

Although Asian bourses traded mixed, the SET climbed strongly, quickly reaching 1,278.63 points as buying interest flowed into blue-chip stocks...

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Lower Provisions in 4Q24E

We switch to a Neutral rating (previously Buy) after the stock price surged 9% since our last report (Nov. 13, 2024), weakening the tactical view...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Ngern Tid Lor, I-TAIL, and Bangkok Chain Hospital could be added and Com7, Srisawad Corp , and KCE Electronics could be deleted according to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

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