Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> and health and beauty product E-commerce play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitanotatsujin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6126:1" rel="noopener">Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/456/original/2020-10-16_06-21-15.png?1602796892" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165456"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/457/original/2020-10-16_06-22-00.png?1602796932" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165457"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>73 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 36%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.6 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS73 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +0.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 36%
44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.6 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. </li>
<li>That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.</li>
<li>EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. 
That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.
EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.


[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

Japan

NGK SPARK PLUG Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spark plugs for automobiles, motorcycles, agricultural machinery, ships, and aircrafts.  The Company also makes ceramic products for semiconductor and telecommunication equipment. NGK Spark Plug markets its products under the NGK and NTK brand names and has subsidiaries in the US, Canada, France, Germany, and South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Ngk Spark Plug (5334 JP)

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

In the 5 days since I published, Toshiba's Kioxia shares have added ¥930bn in value. After tax assuming sold, that would be ¥650bn and ¥324/Rohm...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

In the 5 days since I published, Toshiba's Kioxia shares have added ¥930bn in value. After tax assuming sold, that would be ¥650bn and ¥324/Rohm...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark