Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">NH Foods (2282 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than four standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">NH Foods (2282 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>  targets a 11% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The NH Foods (2282 JP) vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) price ratio has deviated more than four standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long NH Foods (2282 JP) and short Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)  targets a 11% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday 8 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP)</a> a.k.a. Nippon Ham <a href="https://www.nipponham.co.jp/eng/ir/library/briefing_session/pdf/2026/20260508_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced earnings</a> for the year to March 2026, guidance for the year to March 2027, and a buyback.</li>
<li>Revenues were +6.3%yoy, OP was +60.7%yoy, NP +31.9%yoy. For the year to Mar27, <a href="https://www.nipponham.co.jp/eng/ir/library/briefing_session/pdf/2026/20260508_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guidance</a> is for revs +2.9%, OP -10.7% (mostly Gulf War impact), and NP +8.4% (no XO loss). </li>
<li>Nippon Ham also announced a buyback of up to 7.0mm shares spending ¥40bn. Theoretically 7.4%, at last plus a bit, 6%. 17% of Max Real World Float.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 8 May, Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP) a.k.a. Nippon Ham announced earnings for the year to March 2026, guidance for the year to March 2027, and a buyback.
Revenues were +6.3%yoy, OP was +60.7%yoy, NP +31.9%yoy. For the year to Mar27, guidance is for revs +2.9%, OP -10.7% (mostly Gulf War impact), and NP +8.4% (no XO loss). 
Nippon Ham also announced a buyback of up to 7.0mm shares spending ¥40bn. Theoretically 7.4%, at last plus a bit, 6%. 17% of Max Real World Float.


[Japan Buyback] NH Foods Good Earnings, Big Buyback

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$333m from selling their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP)</a> .</li>
<li>While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$333m from selling their respective stakes in Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Japan, currently six pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Japan, currently six pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Japan (1 June 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 19 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and eight sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 19 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and eight sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

Japan

NH Foods Ltd. produces and sells ham, sausage, and processed meat products. The Company also breeds and raises cattle through its subsidiary. NH Foods owns a professional baseball team, the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP)

NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

11% target return in a potential pair trade as the price ratio reaches a rare four-sigma extreme, creating a statistical mean-reversion opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Japan Buyback] NH Foods Good Earnings, Big Buyback

Nippon Ham is buying back more stock. Earnings OK given the year. Guidance a bit of a miss. Low-vol quality name, cheaper than peers with a 6% ADV...

Travis Lundy

NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$333m from selling their respective stakes in NH Foods. In this note, we will talk about the...

Nicholas Tan

Relative Value Opportunities in Japan (1 June 2026)

Discover six pair trade opportunities across three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

11% target return in a potential pair trade as the price ratio reaches a rare four-sigma extreme, creating a statistical mean-reversion opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

[Japan Buyback] NH Foods Good Earnings, Big Buyback

Nippon Ham is buying back more stock. Earnings OK given the year. Guidance a bit of a miss. Low-vol quality name, cheaper than peers with a 6% ADV...

Travis Lundy

NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$333m from selling their respective stakes in NH Foods. In this note, we will talk about the...

Nicholas Tan

Relative Value Opportunities in Japan (1 June 2026)

​Discover six pair trade opportunities across three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

​Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover six pair trade opportunities across three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.