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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li><p>In Depth: China’s pension insurers told to stop pursuing quick and risky profits</p></li><li><p>China Meheco links up with Pfizer to market Covid pill</p></li><li><p>China must address gender imbalance to tackle demographic crisis, Nobel laureate says</p></li></ul>

In Depth: China’s pension insurers told to stop pursuing quick and risky profitsChina Meheco links up with Pfizer to market Covid pillChina must address gender imbalance to tackle demographic crisis, Nobel laureate says

CX Daily: China’s Pension Insurers Told to Stop Pursuing Quick and Risky Profits

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Morowali, an Indonesian county with fewer than 200,000 residents, has attracted billions of dollars in investment from Chinese companies.</li>
<li>All the money went to the same place — industrial parks established by Chinese stainless steel giant Tsingshan Holding Group Ltd. — to set up nickel smelters</li>
<li>Like many other raw materials in the sector, the trend has driven up nickel prices</li>
</ul>


Morowali, an Indonesian county with fewer than 200,000 residents, has attracted billions of dollars in investment from Chinese companies.
All the money went to the same place — industrial parks established by Chinese stainless steel giant Tsingshan Holding Group Ltd. — to set up nickel smelters
Like many other raw materials in the sector, the trend has driven up nickel prices


In Depth: Chinese Companies’ Quest for Indonesian Nickel Grows Perilous

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Last month our text-mined indicators highlighted a notable raw materials restocking underway for the second time since August; this theme did not slow down throughout December, ending the month at a new high</li>
<li>Though with very little discernible impact on commodities, our indicators saw Chinese macro sentiment peak earlier in December at +3x STDEV with some momentum lost on the margin since, driven by below-consensus Chinese retail sales and home price readings, continuing in recent days on lower-than-expected NBS and Caixin PMI releases</li>
<li>In the context of USD weakness, a wildly inflationary mindset in markets and a general restocking, commodity optimism has not wavered </li>
<li>Our commodity sentiment indicators saw broader momentum in December, with already-surging copper momentum joined by crude, aluminum, uranium and nickel; iron ore and steel may be coming off the boil, but markets remain extraordinarily tight</li>
<li>Gold sentiment appears to have fully stabilized after the post-election risk-on shock</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Last month our text-mined indicators highlighted a notable raw materials restocking underway for the second time since August; this theme did not slow down throughout December, ending the month at a new high
Though with very little discernible impact on commodities, our indicators saw Chinese macro sentiment peak earlier in December at +3x STDEV with some momentum lost on the margin since, driven by below-consensus Chinese retail sales and home price readings, continuing in recent days on lower-than-expected NBS and Caixin PMI releases
In the context of USD weakness, a wildly inflationary mindset in markets and a general restocking, commodity optimism has not wavered 
Our commodity sentiment indicators saw broader momentum in December, with already-surging copper momentum joined by crude, aluminum, uranium and nickel; iron ore and steel may be coming off the boil, but markets remain extraordinarily tight
Gold sentiment appears to have fully stabilized after the post-election risk-on shock
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Commodity Sentiment Review - Restocking On, But China Macro Momentum May Have Peaked

<ul>
<li>Following the November melt-up, we text-mine for clues on inventory restocking dynamics going into year-end</li>
<li>While references to a general inventory restocking in the global financial media are up nearly +4x STDEVs, our data suggests this is the second notable raw materials restocking wave since the recovery began, following a more robust restocking seen in August; nonetheless, the current phase is abnormal relative to typical year-end seasonality, highlighting much-anticipated pent-up demand</li>
<li>Our short-term broad commodity sentiment indicator hit +2x STDEVs, its highest reading since January, on 11/23; this followed a significant spike in China macro sentiment earlier in November, which was preceded by a multi-year record in our Copper sentiment indicator in the first half of the month</li>
<li>Current readings see continued positive sentiment momentum in palladium, copper, aluminum and crude, while negative sentiment persists in pulp, uranium and silver</li>
<li>Our sentiment picture for iron ore and steel has been obfuscated by Australia-China tensions, having turned neutral after readings of +3x STDEV and +1.8x STDEV in recent weeks; but our news attributions also identify reports of seasonally declining BF utilization and end demand in recent weeks</li>
<li>While raw materials-specific and short-cycle industrial restocking may pause in the next 6-8 weeks, the broader global finished goods restocking is likely to remain a supportive factor keeping commodities trading in tighter ranges relative to winter averages </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Following the November melt-up, we text-mine for clues on inventory restocking dynamics going into year-end
While references to a general inventory restocking in the global financial media are up nearly +4x STDEVs, our data suggests this is the second notable raw materials restocking wave since the recovery began, following a more robust restocking seen in August; nonetheless, the current phase is abnormal relative to typical year-end seasonality, highlighting much-anticipated pent-up demand
Our short-term broad commodity sentiment indicator hit +2x STDEVs, its highest reading since January, on 11/23; this followed a significant spike in China macro sentiment earlier in November, which was preceded by a multi-year record in our Copper sentiment indicator in the first half of the month
Current readings see continued positive sentiment momentum in palladium, copper, aluminum and crude, while negative sentiment persists in pulp, uranium and silver
Our sentiment picture for iron ore and steel has been obfuscated by Australia-China tensions, having turned neutral after readings of +3x STDEV and +1.8x STDEV in recent weeks; but our news attributions also identify reports of seasonally declining BF utilization and end demand in recent weeks
While raw materials-specific and short-cycle industrial restocking may pause in the next 6-8 weeks, the broader global finished goods restocking is likely to remain a supportive factor keeping commodities trading in tighter ranges relative to winter averages 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: December Commodity Sentiment - Restocking into Winter on Pent-Up Demand Expectations

<ul>
<li>In last month's report we saw late-September USD strength contribute to softer base metals sentiment and a collapse in precious metals sentiment (amid reports of millennial preference for cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge)</li>
<li>More recently, we saw copper sentiment surge to &gt;3x STDEVs, a multi-year record on our data, as financial media preoccupation with relative Chinese macro strength and strong EV demand met persistent newsflow on imminent labor-related supply disruptions in Chile; our back-testing suggests such anomalous sentiment readings normally lead to temporary pullbacks in the copper price</li>
<li>Gold &amp; silver sentiment fell further in October to levels last seen in April, but we see early signs of bottoming in gold; platinum sentiment improved on hydrogen economy news </li>
<li>Crude oil sentiment fell to its lowest since May, predictably attributed to the prospect of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading globally &amp; Libyan news</li>
<li>Iron ore sentiment has moved into positive territory in the final week of October, driven by 3 consecutive weeks of steel inventory draws in China and a notable rally in rebar prices</li>
<li>Despite deteriorating COVID-19 newsflow, crude weakness and USD strength, sentiment is positive on more commodities relative to late September, with supply disruptions and greater conviction on Chinese macro the key drivers</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


In last month's report we saw late-September USD strength contribute to softer base metals sentiment and a collapse in precious metals sentiment (amid reports of millennial preference for cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge)
More recently, we saw copper sentiment surge to &gt;3x STDEVs, a multi-year record on our data, as financial media preoccupation with relative Chinese macro strength and strong EV demand met persistent newsflow on imminent labor-related supply disruptions in Chile; our back-testing suggests such anomalous sentiment readings normally lead to temporary pullbacks in the copper price
Gold &amp; silver sentiment fell further in October to levels last seen in April, but we see early signs of bottoming in gold; platinum sentiment improved on hydrogen economy news 
Crude oil sentiment fell to its lowest since May, predictably attributed to the prospect of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading globally &amp; Libyan news
Iron ore sentiment has moved into positive territory in the final week of October, driven by 3 consecutive weeks of steel inventory draws in China and a notable rally in rebar prices
Despite deteriorating COVID-19 newsflow, crude weakness and USD strength, sentiment is positive on more commodities relative to late September, with supply disruptions and greater conviction on Chinese macro the key drivers
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators:  November Commodity Sentiment - Base Overshoots, Ferrous Improves, Gold Bottoming?

United States

Nickel is a silvery-white lustrous metal with a slight golden tinge. Nickel belongs to the transition metals and is hard and ductile. Pure nickel, powdered to maximize the reactive surface area, shows a significant chemical activity, but larger pieces are slow to react with air under standard conditions because an oxide layer forms on the surface and prevents further corrosion.

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Nickel (NICKEL COMDTY)

CX Daily: China’s Pension Insurers Told to Stop Pursuing Quick and Risky Profits

In Depth: China’s pension insurers told to stop pursuing quick and risky profits. China Meheco links up with Pfizer to market Covid pill

Caixin Global

In Depth: Chinese Companies’ Quest for Indonesian Nickel Grows Perilous

Morowali, an Indonesian county with fewer than 200,000 residents, has attracted billions of dollars in investment from Chinese companies.

Caixin Global

TMI Indicators: Commodity Sentiment Review - Restocking On, But China Macro Momentum May Have Peaked

TMI's commodity sentiment indicators saw improved breadth in December as restocking continues to drive reflation; but China macro momentum may have...

Elan Gore

TMI Indicators: December Commodity Sentiment - Restocking into Winter on Pent-Up Demand Expectations

We text-mine for clues on the current restocking, and believe the anticipation of pent-up demand is likely to keep the commodities trading in a...

Elan Gore

TMI Indicators: November Commodity Sentiment - Base Overshoots, Ferrous Improves, Gold Bottoming?

Our text-mined commodity sentiment indicators see an overshoot in copper sentiment, a notable turnaround in iron ore sentiment, and potential signs...

Elan Gore

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