Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> posted an insight Monday discussing how Indian stocks may experience significant passive inflows and outflows from global trackers over coming weeks. Read his insight for more detail.</li>
<li>The changes may start to produce effects soon, so here we are offering an analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> to evalate potential upside and downside.</li>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-50-tactical-outlook-indecision-may-lead-to-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous NIFTY 50 insight</a> warned that trend indecision could trigger a pullback—exactly what is unfolding now in the market. The index remains not oversold yet.</li>
</ul>



Brian Freitas posted an insight Monday discussing how Indian stocks may experience significant passive inflows and outflows from global trackers over coming weeks. Read his insight for more detail.
The changes may start to produce effects soon, so here we are offering an analysis of the NIFTY Index to evalate potential upside and downside.
Our previous NIFTY 50 insight warned that trend indecision could trigger a pullback—exactly what is unfolding now in the market. The index remains not oversold yet.


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook Amidst Potential Passive Flows From Global Trackers

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.</li>
<li>Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).</li>
<li>If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.
Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).
If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-50-tactical-view-risk-off-scenario-before-sep-30-rebalance-tariffs-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> insight published at the end of August we highlighted two possible scenarios before the Sep-30 rebalance: 1) risk-off pullback or 2) small rally. </li>
<li>
Scenario 2), the small rally is what came true, it lasted 3 weeks (we said 2 weeks), but it was a weak rally. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> however is not very overbought.</li>
<li>3-Week rallies not reaching higher highs usually indicate a weakness in the trend, but this could be a buy opportunity, so let's have a look at our model's BUY zones... </li>
</ul>


In our previousNIFTY Index insight published at the end of August we highlighted two possible scenarios before the Sep-30 rebalance: 1) risk-off pullback or 2) small rally. 

Scenario 2), the small rally is what came true, it lasted 3 weeks (we said 2 weeks), but it was a weak rally. The NIFTY however is not very overbought.
3-Week rallies not reaching higher highs usually indicate a weakness in the trend, but this could be a buy opportunity, so let's have a look at our model's BUY zones... 


NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Quantifying Downside Risk and Strategic Re-Entry Zones

<ul>
<li>As forecasted in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-50-index-outlook-rebound-rally-in-sight-profit-targets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> rallied past 25k, but we said this was a BEARISH pattern - rally was short-lived (2 weeks), then this week down.
</li>
<li>
Effective September 30 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and Max Healthcare Institute will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, replacing Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank, in the meanwhile 50% US tariffs kicked in.
</li>
<li>We see a potential continuation of the recent bearishness with a RISK-OFF scenario where the index could drop to much lower prices in September, support target 23819 or below.</li>
</ul>


As forecasted in our previous insight, the NIFTY Index rallied past 25k, but we said this was a BEARISH pattern - rally was short-lived (2 weeks), then this week down.


Effective September 30 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and Max Healthcare Institute will be added to the NIFTY, replacing Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank, in the meanwhile 50% US tariffs kicked in.

We see a potential continuation of the recent bearishness with a RISK-OFF scenario where the index could drop to much lower prices in September, support target 23819 or below.


NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Nifty enters July with supportive seasonal trends in both price and volatility.</li>
<li>Trump-Era seasonal trends point to subdued summer volatility compared to historically low July volatility.</li>
<li>Nifty’s proximity to all-time highs sets up attractive strike locations for vol sellers.</li>
</ul>


Nifty enters July with supportive seasonal trends in both price and volatility.
Trump-Era seasonal trends point to subdued summer volatility compared to historically low July volatility.
Nifty’s proximity to all-time highs sets up attractive strike locations for vol sellers.


Nifty’s Summer Setup: Quiet Vol and Strong Price Seasonals

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook Amidst Potential Passive Flows From Global Trackers

Indian stocks may see significant passive in/outflows from global trackers in the coming weeks, with effects starting soon. Our analysis of the...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback

The NIFTY Index has been stuck around 25k for months. We forecast an incoming pullback this week and/or the next, but it will be a very shallow...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Quantifying Downside Risk and Strategic Re-Entry Zones

The NIFTY Index rallied 3 weeks, a modest rally, it's not very overbought. Weak rallies may indicate trend weakness, but the current pullback may...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact

The recent NIFTY Index rally was short-lived: the recent bearish pattern remains in place ahead of the Sep 30's rebalance, plus 50% US Tariffs...

Nico Rosti

Nifty’s Summer Setup: Quiet Vol and Strong Price Seasonals

Nifty's July outlook shows supportive seasonal trends in price and volatility, with potential for subdued summer volatility compared to...

John Ley

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook Amidst Potential Passive Flows From Global Trackers

​Indian stocks may see significant passive in/outflows from global trackers in the coming weeks, with effects starting soon. Our analysis of the...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback

​The NIFTY Index has been stuck around 25k for months. We forecast an incoming pullback this week and/or the next, but it will be a very shallow...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Quantifying Downside Risk and Strategic Re-Entry Zones

​The NIFTY Index rallied 3 weeks, a modest rally, it's not very overbought. Weak rallies may indicate trend weakness, but the current pullback may...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact

The recent ​NIFTY Index rally was short-lived: the recent bearish pattern remains in place ahead of the Sep 30's rebalance, plus 50% US Tariffs...

Nico Rosti

Nifty’s Summer Setup: Quiet Vol and Strong Price Seasonals

​Nifty's July outlook shows supportive seasonal trends in price and volatility, with potential for subdued summer volatility compared to...

John Ley

Indian stocks may see significant passive in/outflows from global trackers in the coming weeks, with effects starting soon. Our analysis of the...

The NIFTY Index has been stuck around 25k for months. We forecast an incoming pullback this week and/or the next, but it will be a very shallow...

The NIFTY Index rallied 3 weeks, a modest rally, it's not very overbought. Weak rallies may indicate trend weakness, but the current pullback may...

The recent NIFTY Index rally was short-lived: the recent bearish pattern remains in place ahead of the Sep 30's rebalance, plus 50% US Tariffs...

Nifty's July outlook shows supportive seasonal trends in price and volatility, with potential for subdued summer volatility compared to...