Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. </li>
<li>SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.</li>
<li>Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.</li>
</ul>


All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. 
SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.
Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.


EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> has been pullingback for 5 consecutive months. However the index may be at a juncture where it could start to rally and rise again.</li>
<li>This insight discusses the short-term (WEEKLY, for the next few weeks) tactical profit targets for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>.</li>
<li>According to our NIFTY WEEKLY model, the index has a good chance to reverse and go higher, as long as Trump suddenly does not put some tariffs also on India!</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has been pullingback for 5 consecutive months. However the index may be at a juncture where it could start to rally and rise again.
This insight discusses the short-term (WEEKLY, for the next few weeks) tactical profit targets for the NIFTY.
According to our NIFTY WEEKLY model, the index has a good chance to reverse and go higher, as long as Trump suddenly does not put some tariffs also on India!


The Long-Overdue NIFTY Index Rally: Let's Talk About PROFIT TARGETS

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The global economic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, marked by a phenomenon known as geo-economic fragmentation (GEF). </li>
<li>Between mid-October 2023 and mid-October 2024, the value of trade covered by new restrictions surged to USD 887.7 billion, a staggering half a trillion dollars more than the previous year. </li>
<li>The cost of trade fragmentation could range from 0.2% to 7% of the global GDP.</li>
</ul>


The global economic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, marked by a phenomenon known as geo-economic fragmentation (GEF). 
Between mid-October 2023 and mid-October 2024, the value of trade covered by new restrictions surged to USD 887.7 billion, a staggering half a trillion dollars more than the previous year. 
The cost of trade fragmentation could range from 0.2% to 7% of the global GDP.


Thematic Report: Geo-Economic Fragmentation; The Start of a Trade War?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>This Insight presents intraday data to illustrate regional volatility moves over the past one and a half trading days. </li>
<li>Sunday’s US tariff announcement led to a global decline in equities and a spike in volatility on Monday. Asian indices began to recover today with a slight decrease in volatility.</li>
<li>Market reaction to Sunday's announcement was short-lived, so far, and the impact on implied volatility muted. The risk of a renewed volatility spike to or above Monday's intraday high's remains.</li>
</ul>


This Insight presents intraday data to illustrate regional volatility moves over the past one and a half trading days. 
Sunday’s US tariff announcement led to a global decline in equities and a spike in volatility on Monday. Asian indices began to recover today with a slight decrease in volatility.
Market reaction to Sunday's announcement was short-lived, so far, and the impact on implied volatility muted. The risk of a renewed volatility spike to or above Monday's intraday high's remains.


EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

<ul>
<li>Budget FY26 treads a fine balance between promoting consumption without compromising on fiscal prudence and maintaining continuity on capex.  </li>
<li>This report highlights the sector and stock-specific impact of announcements</li>
<li>Nifty50 EPS growth will remain tepid but it could be much better in FY26E. Post the double-digit market correction, Nifty50 large caps seem less expensive (trading at &lt; +1 sd).</li>
</ul>


Budget FY26 treads a fine balance between promoting consumption without compromising on fiscal prudence and maintaining continuity on capex.  
This report highlights the sector and stock-specific impact of announcements
Nifty50 EPS growth will remain tepid but it could be much better in FY26E. Post the double-digit market correction, Nifty50 large caps seem less expensive (trading at &lt; +1 sd).


Thematic Report: Impact of Indian Budget 2025 on Sectors and Companies

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

Markets show price weakness and increased volatility in late February. Gold, SP500, and SPASX200 have gone > 450 days without 10% corrections,...

John Ley

The Long-Overdue NIFTY Index Rally: Let's Talk About PROFIT TARGETS

After a 5-month pullback, the NIFTY Index may be poised for a long overdue rally. Let's have a look at short-term profit targets for the next 3...

Nico Rosti

Thematic Report: Geo-Economic Fragmentation; The Start of a Trade War?

Global economic landscape is shifting due to geo-economic fragmentation, with trade restrictions surging to USD 887.7 billion in a year,...

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

The Tariff Tantrum triggered a universal equity decline and spike in volatility. Intra-day data shows that market reaction was short-lived, but...

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: Impact of Indian Budget 2025 on Sectors and Companies

Budget FY26 strikes a balance between boosting consumption and fiscal prudence, with potential for improved Nifty50 EPS growth in FY26E. Sector...

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

​Markets show price weakness and increased volatility in late February. Gold, SP500, and SPASX200 have gone > 450 days without 10% corrections,...

John Ley

The Long-Overdue NIFTY Index Rally: Let's Talk About PROFIT TARGETS

​After a 5-month pullback, the NIFTY Index may be poised for a long overdue rally. Let's have a look at short-term profit targets for the next 3...

Nico Rosti

Thematic Report: Geo-Economic Fragmentation; The Start of a Trade War?

​Global economic landscape is shifting due to geo-economic fragmentation, with trade restrictions surging to USD 887.7 billion in a year,...

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

The Tariff Tantrum ​triggered a universal equity decline and spike in volatility. Intra-day data shows that market reaction was short-lived, but...

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: Impact of Indian Budget 2025 on Sectors and Companies

​Budget FY26 strikes a balance between boosting consumption and fiscal prudence, with potential for improved Nifty50 EPS growth in FY26E. Sector...

Nimish Maheshwari

Markets show price weakness and increased volatility in late February. Gold, SP500, and SPASX200 have gone > 450 days without 10% corrections,...

After a 5-month pullback, the NIFTY Index may be poised for a long overdue rally. Let's have a look at short-term profit targets for the next 3...

Global economic landscape is shifting due to geo-economic fragmentation, with trade restrictions surging to USD 887.7 billion in a year,...

The Tariff Tantrum triggered a universal equity decline and spike in volatility. Intra-day data shows that market reaction was short-lived, but...

Budget FY26 strikes a balance between boosting consumption and fiscal prudence, with potential for improved Nifty50 EPS growth in FY26E. Sector...