Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been rising for 5 days in a row, this is the second week up (CC=+2), there is a good chance it will pullback soon.</li>
<li>The index is going towards the Q3 resistance level at 22354, that would be a good area from where to start to prepare for a pullback.</li>
<li>Going SHORT may not be worth it, the right trade is to wait for the pullback and go LONG again at better prices.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been rising for 5 days in a row, this is the second week up (CC=+2), there is a good chance it will pullback soon.
The index is going towards the Q3 resistance level at 22354, that would be a good area from where to start to prepare for a pullback.
Going SHORT may not be worth it, the right trade is to wait for the pullback and go LONG again at better prices.


EQD | NIFTY's Rally Resistance Targets Approaching: Reversal?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Technical Indicators and Sentiment Point to Potential Risks Amidst Strong Fundamentals</li><li>John Templeton famously stated, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.</li><li>" While India's economic prospects remain strong, several technical indicators and market sentiment suggest potential exuberance in the benchmark indices.</li></ul>

Technical Indicators and Sentiment Point to Potential Risks Amidst Strong FundamentalsJohn Templeton famously stated, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria." While India's economic prospects remain strong, several technical indicators and market sentiment suggest potential exuberance in the benchmark indices.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.</li>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.</li>
</ul>


There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.
The review period for the March rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.
There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> was supposed to continue its rally but has stalled a bit this week.</li>
<li>This modest pullback could be a buy-the-dip opportunity, based on our WEEKLY models reading.</li>
<li>The price support area to buy is between the Last WEEKLY Close and  21229.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index was supposed to continue its rally but has stalled a bit this week.
This modest pullback could be a buy-the-dip opportunity, based on our WEEKLY models reading.
The price support area to buy is between the Last WEEKLY Close and  21229.


EQD | NIFTY's Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> using the current index methodology.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | NIFTY's Rally Resistance Targets Approaching: Reversal?

The NIFTY Index has been on a 5-day rise, currently up for its second consecutive week and approaching Q3 resistance at 22354. Prepare for a...

Nico Rosti

Indian Benchmark Indices

While India's economic prospects remain strong, several technical indicators and market sentiment suggest potential exuberance in the benchmark...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | NIFTY's Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

The NIFTY Index rally has paused, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity between the Last WEEKLY Close and 21229.

Nico Rosti

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

With the review period complete, there could be 6 changes for the NIFTY NEXT50 in March. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes...

Brian Freitas

EQD | NIFTY's Rally Resistance Targets Approaching: Reversal?

​The NIFTY Index has been on a 5-day rise, currently up for its second consecutive week and approaching Q3 resistance at 22354. Prepare for a...

Nico Rosti

Indian Benchmark Indices

While India's economic prospects remain strong, several technical indicators and market sentiment suggest potential exuberance in the benchmark...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | NIFTY's Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

​The NIFTY Index rally has paused, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity between the Last WEEKLY Close and 21229.

Nico Rosti

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

With the review period complete, there could be 6 changes for the NIFTY NEXT50 in March. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes...

Brian Freitas

The NIFTY Index has been on a 5-day rise, currently up for its second consecutive week and approaching Q3 resistance at 22354. Prepare for a...

The NIFTY Index rally has paused, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity between the Last WEEKLY Close and 21229.