Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

Kato Hong Kong Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The aging population is among the most unarguable mega-trends in today's world and can act as both a powerful headwind and a tailwind (for some industries);</li>
<li>In the past, I have touched upon some businesses benefiting drastically from the demographic tailwind, but admittedly, most of them are well recognized, and hence, expensive;</li>
<li>In this episode, I would like to discuss one more name monetizing the aging population in the Far East;</li>
<li>While being lesser-known, Kato Holdings appears to be a decent candidate to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a multi-bagger in the foreseeable future.</li>
</ul>


The aging population is among the most unarguable mega-trends in today's world and can act as both a powerful headwind and a tailwind (for some industries);
In the past, I have touched upon some businesses benefiting drastically from the demographic tailwind, but admittedly, most of them are well recognized, and hence, expensive;
In this episode, I would like to discuss one more name monetizing the aging population in the Far East;
While being lesser-known, Kato Holdings appears to be a decent candidate to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a multi-bagger in the foreseeable future.


One Hidden Gem Monetizing The Aging Population

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Nihon M&amp;A reported 4QFY03/2023 results last week. Revenue increased 86.7% YoY to ¥11.4bn (vs consensus ¥10.0bn) while OP for the quarter more than quadrupled to ¥4.2bn (vs consensus ¥4.9bn).</li>
<li>Full-Year FY03/2023 revenue of ¥41.3bn and OP of ¥15.3bn were slightly below guidance of ¥42bn and ¥18bn respectively and the company has put aside its medium-term growth plan by 2years.</li>
<li>We continue to prefer Baycurrent over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a> in the Japanese consulting/M&amp;A space as Baycurrent continues to make strong progress.</li>
</ul>


Nihon M&amp;A reported 4QFY03/2023 results last week. Revenue increased 86.7% YoY to ¥11.4bn (vs consensus ¥10.0bn) while OP for the quarter more than quadrupled to ¥4.2bn (vs consensus ¥4.9bn).
Full-Year FY03/2023 revenue of ¥41.3bn and OP of ¥15.3bn were slightly below guidance of ¥42bn and ¥18bn respectively and the company has put aside its medium-term growth plan by 2years.
We continue to prefer Baycurrent over Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP) in the Japanese consulting/M&amp;A space as Baycurrent continues to make strong progress.


Nihon M&A: Puts Aside Mid-Term Growth Plan by Two Years

BayCurrent Consulting  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Baycurrent reported fourth quarter and full-year FY02/2023 results on Friday. 4Q revenues increased 32.1% YoY to ¥21.2bn (vs consensus ¥20.7bn) and OP increased 60.8% to ¥9.6bn (vs consensus ¥8.3bn).</li>
<li>Full-Year revenue and OP increased 32% and 39% YoY respectively to ¥76.1bn and ¥29.9bn, beating own guidance by 7% and 15% respectively.</li>
<li>The company’s FY02/2023E guidance is too conservative as there has been no signs of an earnings slowdown as DX consulting and high-value add projects would drive next phase of growth.</li>
</ul>


Baycurrent reported fourth quarter and full-year FY02/2023 results on Friday. 4Q revenues increased 32.1% YoY to ¥21.2bn (vs consensus ¥20.7bn) and OP increased 60.8% to ¥9.6bn (vs consensus ¥8.3bn).
Full-Year revenue and OP increased 32% and 39% YoY respectively to ¥76.1bn and ¥29.9bn, beating own guidance by 7% and 15% respectively.
The company’s FY02/2023E guidance is too conservative as there has been no signs of an earnings slowdown as DX consulting and high-value add projects would drive next phase of growth.


Baycurrent Consulting: Strong Earnings Beat with an Overly Conservative Guidance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a> reported 3QFY03/2022 results. Revenue declined 9.9% YoY to JPY9.8bn (vs consensus JPY13.6bn) while OP dropped 21.9% YoY to JPY3.2bn (vs consensus JPY6.1bn).</li>
<li>Though there had been an increase in the no. of transactions completed during the quarter, revenue declined due to price pressures.</li>
<li>Share price has declined 22.8% during today’s trade due to weaker-than-expected earnings and we think full-year FY03/2022E guidance is too hard to achieve.</li>
</ul>



Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP) reported 3QFY03/2022 results. Revenue declined 9.9% YoY to JPY9.8bn (vs consensus JPY13.6bn) while OP dropped 21.9% YoY to JPY3.2bn (vs consensus JPY6.1bn).
Though there had been an increase in the no. of transactions completed during the quarter, revenue declined due to price pressures.
Share price has declined 22.8% during today’s trade due to weaker-than-expected earnings and we think full-year FY03/2022E guidance is too hard to achieve.


Nihon M&A: Weak Earnings and Guidance for Full-Year Seems Too Optimistic

<ul>
<li>Baycurrent’s share price has moved up 41.3% YTD with the company reporting strong earnings for 3QFY02/2023 which beat consensus estimates by a huge margin.</li>
<li>With pandemic conditions fading off, share price began to fall with top-line growth declining slightly. However, growth rates have bounced back, and margins have seen strong improvement reaching new highs.</li>
<li>Though share priced has rallied significantly over the last few months, we think there is further upside driven by value-added projects and expansion into new consulting areas.</li>
</ul>


Baycurrent’s share price has moved up 41.3% YTD with the company reporting strong earnings for 3QFY02/2023 which beat consensus estimates by a huge margin.
With pandemic conditions fading off, share price began to fall with top-line growth declining slightly. However, growth rates have bounced back, and margins have seen strong improvement reaching new highs.
Though share priced has rallied significantly over the last few months, we think there is further upside driven by value-added projects and expansion into new consulting areas.


Baycurrent Consulting: High Value-Added Projects and New Consulting Areas Drive New Phase of Growth

Japan

Nihon M&A Center Inc. provides M&A advisory services to small and medium-sized enterprises. The Company, established by certified public accountants and tax accountants, offers M&A related services such as reorganization and MBO (Management Buy-Out) as well.

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Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP)

One Hidden Gem Monetizing The Aging Population

While being lesser-known, this Hong Kong-based micro-cap appears fundamentally strong and reasonably priced to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a...

Steven Chen

Nihon M&A: Puts Aside Mid-Term Growth Plan by Two Years

Nihon M&A's FY03/2023 earnings were below its own guidance and the company has put aside its mid-term growth plan by 2 years. We prefer Baycurrent...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Baycurrent Consulting: Strong Earnings Beat with an Overly Conservative Guidance

Baycurrent's 4Q earnings beat estimate and FY02/2024E guidance was too conservative. The company has managed to beat top line guidance every year...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Nihon M&A: Weak Earnings and Guidance for Full-Year Seems Too Optimistic

3Q earnings below consensus which has led to more than 20% fall in share price. Though the company hasn't changed previous guidance, 4Q is the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Baycurrent Consulting: High Value-Added Projects and New Consulting Areas Drive New Phase of Growth

Baycurrent’s share price has moved up 41.3% YTD. Though share price is close to all-time high, we think there is further upside driven by value...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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