Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

BayCurrent Consulting  / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">Baycurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> reported 4QFY02/2022 results today. Revenue grew 30.9% YoY to JPY16.2bn while OP increased 61.3% YoY to JPY6.8bn.</li>
<li>Full-Year FY02/2022 revenues grew 34.4% YoY to JPY57.6bn and OP increased 58.7% YoY to JPY21.5bn. Both revenue and OP beat guidance by 1.9% and 2.4% respectively.</li>
<li>BayCurrent’s shares are down 30% since its peak in September 2021, and we think current share price offers a good entry point.</li>
</ul>



Baycurrent Consulting (6532 JP) reported 4QFY02/2022 results today. Revenue grew 30.9% YoY to JPY16.2bn while OP increased 61.3% YoY to JPY6.8bn.
Full-Year FY02/2022 revenues grew 34.4% YoY to JPY57.6bn and OP increased 58.7% YoY to JPY21.5bn. Both revenue and OP beat guidance by 1.9% and 2.4% respectively.
BayCurrent’s shares are down 30% since its peak in September 2021, and we think current share price offers a good entry point.


BayCurrent: Strong Results but Guidance Seems Too Conservative

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a> reported 3QFY03/2021 results yesterday alongside publication of investigation report over false recording of sales contracts on the internal system between FY03/2019 to 2QFY03/2021.</li>
<li>The company announced on 20th December 2021 that it has commenced an investigation over the above issue and postponed the announcement of its 3Q results.</li>
<li>Revenue for 3QFY03/2021 increased 14.6% YoY to JPY10.85bn (vs consensus JPY12bn) while OP dropped 5.1% YoY to JPY4.0bn (vs consensus JPY6.0bn).</li>
</ul>



Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP) reported 3QFY03/2021 results yesterday alongside publication of investigation report over false recording of sales contracts on the internal system between FY03/2019 to 2QFY03/2021.
The company announced on 20th December 2021 that it has commenced an investigation over the above issue and postponed the announcement of its 3Q results.
Revenue for 3QFY03/2021 increased 14.6% YoY to JPY10.85bn (vs consensus JPY12bn) while OP dropped 5.1% YoY to JPY4.0bn (vs consensus JPY6.0bn).


Nihon: False Recording of Sales Leads to More Than 40% Drop; Can Nihon Regain Investor Confidence?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">Baycurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> reported 3QFY02/2022 results last week. Revenue for the quarter increased 39.0% YoY to JPY15.0bn while OP increased 57.5% YoY to JPY3.7bn.</li>
<li>The company has revised both its revenue and OP guidance upwards for full-year FY02/2022E to JPY56.5bn and JPY21bn respectively.</li>
<li>The company has already met 73.5% and 72.7% of its revenue and OP target, we expect earnings beat for the full-year as fourth quarter is the strongest.</li>
</ul>



Baycurrent Consulting (6532 JP) reported 3QFY02/2022 results last week. Revenue for the quarter increased 39.0% YoY to JPY15.0bn while OP increased 57.5% YoY to JPY3.7bn.
The company has revised both its revenue and OP guidance upwards for full-year FY02/2022E to JPY56.5bn and JPY21bn respectively.
The company has already met 73.5% and 72.7% of its revenue and OP target, we expect earnings beat for the full-year as fourth quarter is the strongest.


BayCurrent: Strong Earnings and an Upgrade to Guidance; Drop in Multiples Offers a Good Entry Point

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a> , Japan’s largest M&amp;A center, offers various M&amp;A related services. Japan is actively looking to counter the issue of lack of successors in SMEs.</li>
<li>M&amp;As have been identified as a solution which offers Nihon with strong growth opportunity. Nihon is also part of the M&amp;A Intermediaries Association which seeks to improve Japan’s M&amp;A process.</li>
<li>In this insight, we examine the company’s business model, key drivers, outlook, financials and valuation.</li>
</ul>



Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP) , Japan’s largest M&amp;A center, offers various M&amp;A related services. Japan is actively looking to counter the issue of lack of successors in SMEs.
M&amp;As have been identified as a solution which offers Nihon with strong growth opportunity. Nihon is also part of the M&amp;A Intermediaries Association which seeks to improve Japan’s M&amp;A process.
In this insight, we examine the company’s business model, key drivers, outlook, financials and valuation.


Nihon M&A Center: Kishida’s New Initiatives Towards SMEs to Accelerate Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
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Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
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Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Japan

Nihon M&A Center Inc. provides M&A advisory services to small and medium-sized enterprises. The Company, established by certified public accountants and tax accountants, offers M&A related services such as reorganization and MBO (Management Buy-Out) as well.

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Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP)

BayCurrent: Strong Results but Guidance Seems Too Conservative

BayCurrent reported 4QFY02/2022 results today. Revenue grew 30.9% YoY to JPY16.2bn while OP increased 61.3% YoY to JPY6.8bn. We think the company's...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nihon: False Recording of Sales Leads to More Than 40% Drop; Can Nihon Regain Investor Confidence?

Nihon M&A Center reported 3QFY03/2021 results yesterday alongside publication of investigation report over false recording of sales contracts on...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

BayCurrent: Strong Earnings and an Upgrade to Guidance; Drop in Multiples Offers a Good Entry Point

BayCurrent reported strong 3QFY02/2022 earnings which has led to an upgrade to the company's full-year guidance. The company's valuation multiples...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nihon M&A Center: Kishida’s New Initiatives Towards SMEs to Accelerate Growth

Nihon M&A Center is Japan’s largest M&A center. Ageing of business owners and lack of succession is a key issue faced by SMEs in Japan. Kishida's...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

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