'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/629/original/2020-12-01_06-32-57.png?1606771992" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175629"></figure></section><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS </strong>- By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p></section><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS </strong>- Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS </strong>- High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUND BUYS </strong>- High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong><strong>SELLS</strong> - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul></div><div>
<p>Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil (5938 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC (6701 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/110/original/2020-11-30_09-39-21.png?1606696981" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175110"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/111/original/2020-11-30_09-43-17.png?1606697029" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175111"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TURNAROUND BUYS</a> -</strong> In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>section below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Turnaround Buys. The last Insight in this mini-series will look at Ex-Growth Sells before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first two Insights in the Series can be found at - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-buys" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45688" rel="noopener">Contrarian Buys </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-sells" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45725" rel="noopener">Contrarian Sells</a>.  </p>
</div>

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - High Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUND BUYS - High Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTHSELLS - Low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores

Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include Lixil (5938 JP) and NEC (6701 JP).
TURNAROUND BUYS - In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Turnaround Buys. The last Insight in this mini-series will look at Ex-Growth Sells before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. The first two Insights in the Series can be found at - Contrarian Buys and Contrarian Sells.  


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Turnaround Buys

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.</p>

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p>Market is ahead of itself after the vaccine push and faces the reality of slower growth/higher cases into the winter and a stimulus void. Impulsive rallies are bullish but looking frothy tactically where one must protect against a draw down back within US pattern ranges if we crack SPX 3,500 support. Bullish sentiment near extremes with risk of a harder than expected pullback.</p><p>Asia and Europe are showing short term overbought signals with most RSI's knocking on 75+ readings.</p><p>Rally targets are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets.</p>

Market is ahead of itself after the vaccine push and faces the reality of slower growth/higher cases into the winter and a stimulus void. Impulsive rallies are bullish but looking frothy tactically where one must protect against a draw down back within US pattern ranges if we crack SPX 3,500 support. Bullish sentiment near extremes with risk of a harder than expected pullback.Asia and Europe are showing short term overbought signals with most RSI's knocking on 75+ readings.Rally targets are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets.

Asia Reduce and Fresh Buy Levels for Next Push

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/527/original/2020-11-14_11-37-16.png?1605390226" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171527"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>EUPHORIC UP VOLUME</strong> - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply-flawed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 </a>index attracted some attention.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener"></a><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/528/original/2020-11-14_11-41-14.png?1605390632" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171528"></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section><p><strong>LOWER HIGHS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Topix</a> has a few more false summits to overcome to return to the 1980s. A failure to rise above the 2019 high would result in a technically-unhelpful third 'lower high'. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to drift higher against the US dollar. A breach of the ¥100 level would not be supportive of further market upside.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/534/original/2020-11-15_07-35-54.png?1605393369" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171534"></figure></section><p><strong>RSI &gt;80</strong> - The 5-day Relative Strenght Index also rallied to above 80 for only the third time this year, and suggests a period of consolidation is ahead.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/538/original/2020-11-15_07-45-36.png?1605394410" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171538"></figure></section><p><strong>DISCONNECTED</strong> - Unusally, the RSI peak was not matched by a corresponding peak in the Toraku advance/decline ratio. This rally is narrowly concentrated and vulnerable to correction without a broader base of support. Absolute breadth has been steadily falling since the beginning of September and is a bearish signal for the market overall.</p><p><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/539/original/2020-11-14_11-30-48.png?1605394669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171539"></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/540/original/2020-11-14_09-56-01.png?1605395057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171540"></figure></section><p><strong>TOPIX SMALL LAGS AGAIN</strong> - Lastly, the spread between TOPIX and TOPIX Small has fallen to close to a six-month low suggesting an over-concentration in index 'heavyweights'.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/541/original/2020-11-15_08-10-28.png?1605395444" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171541"></figure></section><p><strong>NOT CHEAP</strong> - With only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a> left to report among large caps, the mostly-interim results 'season' has concluded. Trailing operating income has reached a six-year low of ¥40 trillion and a further 10% decline is projected over the next four months. More optimistically, forecast Net Income is within ¥0.5 trillion of the trailing total and has risen by ¥1.8 trillion over the last week. Trailing and forecast multiples are just above 30 times and discount a return to a pre-COVID economy by the summer. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/582/original/2020-11-15_12-53-24.png?1605412418" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171582"></figure></section><p><strong>TURNING THE TIDE</strong> - As in the past, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator bottomed out in sync (allowing for the reporting lag) with the bottoming out of trailing and forecast earnings momentum for our cap-weighted universe of listed companies. A forthcoming Insight will review the Sector, Peer Group and company highlights of the lastest results and revisions.</p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is IT security specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change (3962 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/583/original/2020-11-15_13-06-16.png?1605413211" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171583"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/584/original/2020-11-15_13-07-40.png?1605413274" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171584"></figure></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>540 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 42% Positive / 12% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.3 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.4ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>216 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 14% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 31% Positive / 17% Neutral / 52% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsEUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply-flawed Nikkei 225 index attracted some attention.LOWER HIGHS - Topix has a few more false summits to overcome to return to the 1980s. A failure to rise above the 2019 high would result in a technically-unhelpful third 'lower high'. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to drift higher against the US dollar. A breach of the ¥100 level would not be supportive of further market upside.RSI &gt;80 - The 5-day Relative Strenght Index also rallied to above 80 for only the third time this year, and suggests a period of consolidation is ahead.DISCONNECTED - Unusally, the RSI peak was not matched by a corresponding peak in the Toraku advance/decline ratio. This rally is narrowly concentrated and vulnerable to correction without a broader base of support. Absolute breadth has been steadily falling since the beginning of September and is a bearish signal for the market overall.TOPIX SMALL LAGS AGAIN - Lastly, the spread between TOPIX and TOPIX Small has fallen to close to a six-month low suggesting an over-concentration in index 'heavyweights'.NOT CHEAP - With only Recruit (6098 JP) left to report among large caps, the mostly-interim results 'season' has concluded. Trailing operating income has reached a six-year low of ¥40 trillion and a further 10% decline is projected over the next four months. More optimistically, forecast Net Income is within ¥0.5 trillion of the trailing total and has risen by ¥1.8 trillion over the last week. Trailing and forecast multiples are just above 30 times and discount a return to a pre-COVID economy by the summer. TURNING THE TIDE - As in the past, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator bottomed out in sync (allowing for the reporting lag) with the bottoming out of trailing and forecast earnings momentum for our cap-weighted universe of listed companies. A forthcoming Insight will review the Sector, Peer Group and company highlights of the lastest results and revisions.• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is IT security specialist Change (3962 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP).


DAILY STATS


540 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 42% Positive / 12% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.3 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -7.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%


216 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 14% Neutral / 40% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 31% Positive / 17% Neutral / 52% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.1 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Euphoria!

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Favored longs in A shares, ASX, Japan, Taiwan and Korea are hitting some resistance levels (to reduce longs) and sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. This fade stems from the likelihood of bull energy being deflated given Trump will contest election results and call for re counts which in turn will delay stimulus certainty and see the current euphoric rally pause as bull triangles form in the SPX and NDX (buy weakness). Fed remarks on slowing growth concerns may also throw water on this reaction spike. We like adding risk on weakness.</p><p>Shorts outlined to trade a pullback lower short term.</p>

Favored longs in A shares, ASX, Japan, Taiwan and Korea are hitting some resistance levels (to reduce longs) and sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. This fade stems from the likelihood of bull energy being deflated given Trump will contest election results and call for re counts which in turn will delay stimulus certainty and see the current euphoric rally pause as bull triangles form in the SPX and NDX (buy weakness). Fed remarks on slowing growth concerns may also throw water on this reaction spike. We like adding risk on weakness.Shorts outlined to trade a pullback lower short term.

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Turnaround Buys

Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include Lixil (5938 JP) and NEC...

Campbell Gunn

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

Asia Reduce and Fresh Buy Levels for Next Push

Rally targets in Asia are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets....

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/13 - Euphoria!

EUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply...

Campbell Gunn

Asia Fade Levels and Fresh Long Supports

Asia is kissing key resistance levels that sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. Trump will contest election results/call for re...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Turnaround Buys

Turnaround Buys are quite rare but tend to offer reasonable upside for relatively low risk. Examples from 2020 include Lixil (5938 JP) and NEC...

Campbell Gunn

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

Asia Reduce and Fresh Buy Levels for Next Push

Rally targets in Asia are being met where we like taking some money off the table and work through fresh buy levels and forward rally targets....

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Euphoria!

EUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply...

Campbell Gunn

Asia Fade Levels and Fresh Long Supports

Asia is kissing key resistance levels that sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. Trump will contest election results/call for re...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/13 - Euphoria!