Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">AAPL US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">GOOG US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">META US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>
</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.


OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: AAPL US , GOOG US , META US , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Nikkei 225


OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) , Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">SoftBank's (9984 JP)</a> Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.</li>
</ul>



Context:SoftBank's (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.

Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.

Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.


SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Credit markets tightened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over narrowing 3 bps to 268 bps.</li>
<li>European bourses rose 0.2-0.9% except for the FTSE 100 and DAX, which both fell 0.1%.</li>
<li>In the US, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were up 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. </li>
</ul>


Credit markets tightened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over narrowing 3 bps to 268 bps.
European bourses rose 0.2-0.9% except for the FTSE 100 and DAX, which both fell 0.1%.
In the US, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were up 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. 


Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>Mitsubishi Electric’s Serendie platform marks a decisive shift toward AI-powered, customer-centric services, with tangible cost savings, ecosystem expansion, and a tripling of Digital Innovation workforce planned by FY2031.</li>
<li>AI Leadership: The company showcased advanced automation and optimization capabilities at AWS Summit Japan, positioning itself as a leader in applied AI.</li>
<li>Punchline is the Japan beta vol trade. Macro risks remain pivotal, as navigating tariff shocks, labor distortions, and central bank policy shifts could shape both performance and volatility exposure.</li>
</ul>


Mitsubishi Electric’s Serendie platform marks a decisive shift toward AI-powered, customer-centric services, with tangible cost savings, ecosystem expansion, and a tripling of Digital Innovation workforce planned by FY2031.
AI Leadership: The company showcased advanced automation and optimization capabilities at AWS Summit Japan, positioning itself as a leader in applied AI.
Punchline is the Japan beta vol trade. Macro risks remain pivotal, as navigating tariff shocks, labor distortions, and central bank policy shifts could shape both performance and volatility exposure.


The Story of Serendie, Mitsubishi Electric's Digital Innovation in the Era of AI

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.</li>
<li>Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.</li>
<li>Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.


Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

SoftBank jumps 10% in a day, 20% in a week. Implied volatility holds firm after 7 Aug results, defying the usual post-earnings crush so far.

Gaudenz Schneider

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

Credit markets tightened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over narrowing 3 bps to 268 bps. European bourses rose 0.2-0.9% except for the FTSE 100 and...

Lucror Analytics

The Story of Serendie, Mitsubishi Electric's Digital Innovation in the Era of AI

Mitsubishi Electric’s Serendie platform signals a bold pivot toward AI-powered services, with strategic execution and macro volatility also shaping...

Jay Cameron

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

​Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

SoftBank jumps 10% in a day, 20% in a week. Implied volatility holds firm after 7 Aug results, defying the usual post-earnings crush so far.

Gaudenz Schneider

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

Credit markets tightened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over narrowing 3 bps to 268 bps. European bourses rose 0.2-0.9% except for the FTSE 100 and...

Lucror Analytics

The Story of Serendie, Mitsubishi Electric's Digital Innovation in the Era of AI

Mitsubishi Electric’s Serendie platform signals a bold pivot toward AI-powered services, with strategic execution and macro volatility also shaping...

Jay Cameron

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

​August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...

John Ley

Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...