Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.</li>
<li>
Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.</li>
</ul>



Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.

Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.

Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.


Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.</li>
<li>
Highlights: The week of July 7 to July 11 is packed with the expiration of the pause on reciprocal tariffs, two Central Bank decisions, and options expiries.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.

Highlights: The week of July 7 to July 11 is packed with the expiration of the pause on reciprocal tariffs, two Central Bank decisions, and options expiries.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.</li>
<li>July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.</li>
<li>Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.</li>
</ul>


Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.
July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.
Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.


Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%</li><li>Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances +5.97%, Machinery +5.37% while Mining -5.23% and Real Estate -1.11%</li><li>JPY 5Y Rates up 1bp, ITRAXX Japan 5Y down 1.73 at 61.45</li></ul>

Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances +5.97%, Machinery +5.37% while Mining -5.23% and Real Estate -1.11%JPY 5Y Rates up 1bp, ITRAXX Japan 5Y down 1.73 at 61.45

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (2025, July 1st)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 - July 4.</li>
<li>US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.</li>
<li>Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 - July 4.
US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in July 2025

Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

An in-depth look at price and volatilty across macro markets. July has historically been fertile ground for volatiilty sellers and we take a deeper...

John Ley

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (2025, July 1st)

Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%. Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Many Asian/Pacific indices and stocks are overbought, US stocks are not yet overbought (apart from NVDA), Gold and Crude oil are down, 10-Year US...

Nico Rosti

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

​The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in July 2025

​Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning

An in-depth look at price and volatilty across macro markets. July has historically been fertile ground for volatiilty sellers and we take a deeper...

John Ley

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (2025, July 1st)

Japanese Equities flat vs. World +1.73% and US +2.98%, Japan +5.56%, Europe +1.56%. Japan Sectors: Nonferrous Metals +8.26%, Electric Appliances...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Many Asian/Pacific indices and stocks are overbought, US stocks are not yet overbought (apart from NVDA), Gold and Crude oil are down, 10-Year US...

Nico Rosti

The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs is set to expire, causing volatility in markets and raising investor concern about potential stress ahead.

Market volatility can be influenced by Central Bank decisions, index changes, and political events. Plan ahead for investment and trading decisions.