Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.</li><li>Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.</li><li>While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.</li></ul>

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The seasonal matrix indicates a possibility for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> to continue its current rally into April and that rally should end in May. </li>
<li>The index at the moment is very overbought, we expect some form of WEEKLY pullback soon, please consult <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-weekly-lift-off-can-it-go-higher" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous insight</a> to find the WEEKLY resistance levels.</li>
<li>The pullback should be seen as a WEEKLY pullback within a larger, longer MONTHLY (multi-month) uptrend, i.e. an opportunity to buy and/or add positions at better prices. </li>
</ul>


The seasonal matrix indicates a possibility for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) to continue its current rally into April and that rally should end in May. 
The index at the moment is very overbought, we expect some form of WEEKLY pullback soon, please consult our previous insight to find the WEEKLY resistance levels.
The pullback should be seen as a WEEKLY pullback within a larger, longer MONTHLY (multi-month) uptrend, i.e. an opportunity to buy and/or add positions at better prices. 


EQD | Nikkei 225 - MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.</li><li>US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in Europe</li><li>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in EuropeIt’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index commenced last week and will run through this week as well.
The announcement of the changes for the LQ45 Index should be announced in the coming week and will be implemented at the close on 31 January.
Huge inflows to CSI 300 Index trackers during the week while there was a big outflow from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fundamental weakening bias in Yen has returned with BoJ unlikely to exit loose policy as inflation has cooled and sustainable economic growth remains uncertain.</li>
<li>Dollar also looks stronger as economic data from the US has shown a rebound in inflation as well as an unexpectedly strong economy.</li>
<li>Yen likely to maintain weakening trend, barring intervention. However, it may face resistance as it approaches November lows.</li>
</ul>


Fundamental weakening bias in Yen has returned with BoJ unlikely to exit loose policy as inflation has cooled and sustainable economic growth remains uncertain.
Dollar also looks stronger as economic data from the US has shown a rebound in inflation as well as an unexpectedly strong economy.
Yen likely to maintain weakening trend, barring intervention. However, it may face resistance as it approaches November lows.


Mint Macro Roundup: Barring BoJ Intervention, Will Yen to Tank to New Lows?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 - MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets

Based on our seasonal patterns models the Nikkei 225 could continue rallying into May, but a WEEKLY pullback is due soon. This is an opportunity...

Nico Rosti

Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put

Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mint Macro Roundup: Barring BoJ Intervention, Will Yen to Tank to New Lows?

The Japanese Yen weakens due to BoJ's loose policy and uncertain economic growth, while the US Dollar strengthens with rebounding inflation. Yen...

Mint Finance

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 - MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets

​Based on our seasonal patterns models the Nikkei 225 could continue rallying into May, but a WEEKLY pullback is due soon. This is an opportunity...

Nico Rosti

Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put

Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, KS200, KQ150, HSIII, STTF, L&F, Costa Group, Japan, Bud APAC

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mint Macro Roundup: Barring BoJ Intervention, Will Yen to Tank to New Lows?

​The Japanese Yen weakens due to BoJ's loose policy and uncertain economic growth, while the US Dollar strengthens with rebounding inflation. Yen...

Mint Finance

Based on our seasonal patterns models the Nikkei 225 could continue rallying into May, but a WEEKLY pullback is due soon. This is an opportunity...

The Japanese Yen weakens due to BoJ's loose policy and uncertain economic growth, while the US Dollar strengthens with rebounding inflation. Yen...