Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Many economists expect the Bank of Japan, after systematically refusing to adjust its extremely loose monetary policy will be the only country to raise interest rates in 2024.</li>
<li>If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates, at the same time, global tightening momentum wanes, betting on a stronger yen is a sure thing.</li>
<li>But with inflation dropping, the Manufacturing PMI below 50, consumer spending and real wages declining, the window for tighter monetary policy is closing rapidly, and hence a long yen position.</li>
</ul>


Many economists expect the Bank of Japan, after systematically refusing to adjust its extremely loose monetary policy will be the only country to raise interest rates in 2024.
If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates, at the same time, global tightening momentum wanes, betting on a stronger yen is a sure thing.
But with inflation dropping, the Manufacturing PMI below 50, consumer spending and real wages declining, the window for tighter monetary policy is closing rapidly, and hence a long yen position.


Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Some stocks have continued to underperform the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.</li>
<li>Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> over the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.</li>
</ul>


Some stocks have continued to underperform the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last couple of weeks.
There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.


Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After a ten-year struggle, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, closing one of the most entertaining and remarkable (what regulator gets hacked in the process) ETF races ever.</li>
<li>US inflation came in hotter than expected, but unlike previous months, underlying data was pretty benign, with one measure of headline CPI dropping below 2% for the first time in 3.5 years.</li>
<li>Chinese equities are out. And not just by sentiment-driven short-term investors. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are on fire, powering ahead by more than 6% since the start of this year.</li>
</ul>


After a ten-year struggle, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, closing one of the most entertaining and remarkable (what regulator gets hacked in the process) ETF races ever.
US inflation came in hotter than expected, but unlike previous months, underlying data was pretty benign, with one measure of headline CPI dropping below 2% for the first time in 3.5 years.
Chinese equities are out. And not just by sentiment-driven short-term investors. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are on fire, powering ahead by more than 6% since the start of this year.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> experienced a 1-week explosive rally, last week, reaching nearly +6.6% higher than the previous week's Close.</li>
<li>The index is now very overbought, can it continue to rise next week? and and how much higher can it go?</li>
<li>Go SHORT in the 36000-38350 price area, but the trade is not without risk.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX experienced a 1-week explosive rally, last week, reaching nearly +6.6% higher than the previous week's Close.
The index is now very overbought, can it continue to rise next week? and and how much higher can it go?
Go SHORT in the 36000-38350 price area, but the trade is not without risk.


EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Lift Off: Can It Go Higher?

Daiwa House Reit Investment / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios early next year.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of February where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>Shorts have started to increase on some of the stocks and there will be further positioning as we near the liquidity event.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios early next year.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of February where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
Shorts have started to increase on some of the stocks and there will be further positioning as we near the liquidity event.


Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!

The window for Bank of Japan monetary tightening is closing swiftly, suggesting this is not the time to be long the yen.

Jeroen Blokland

Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

There could be selling in 5-6 Japan stocks from global passive portfolios next month. Short buildup is smaller than the expected passive selling...

Brian Freitas

The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

With hindsight, this week likely marks Bitcoin's 'official' adoption as a new asset class. Meanwhile, investors seem done with China, once the...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Lift Off: Can It Go Higher?

The Nikkei 225 INDEX had a strong rally last week, but it is now overbought and there are doubts about its ability to continue rising. A short...

Nico Rosti

Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

The potential deletes highlighted in the Insight are up 8.6% since the Insight was published, outperforming the Nikkei 225 TR Index by 3%. That...

Brian Freitas

Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!

The window for Bank of Japan monetary tightening is closing swiftly, suggesting this is not the time to be long the yen.

Jeroen Blokland

Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

There could be selling in 5-6 Japan stocks from global passive portfolios next month. Short buildup is smaller than the expected passive selling...

Brian Freitas

The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

With hindsight, this week likely marks Bitcoin's 'official' adoption as a new asset class. Meanwhile, investors seem done with China, once the...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Lift Off: Can It Go Higher?

​The Nikkei 225 INDEX had a strong rally last week, but it is now overbought and there are doubts about its ability to continue rising. A short...

Nico Rosti

Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

The potential deletes highlighted in the Insight are up 8.6% since the Insight was published, outperforming the Nikkei 225 TR Index by 3%. That...

Brian Freitas

The Nikkei 225 INDEX had a strong rally last week, but it is now overbought and there are doubts about its ability to continue rising. A short...