Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Some stocks have continued to underperform the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.</li>
<li>Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> over the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.</li>
</ul>


Some stocks have continued to underperform the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
Stocks that were expected to be deleted (but could now be safe) have outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last couple of weeks.
There has been two-way flow in a lot of stocks with market participants increasing and covering short positions as the stock prices have moved around.


Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).   

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/open-house-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19550:1" rel="noopener">Open House</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20269:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Chemical</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-house-reit-investment-cb077099-8006-45e4-83cf-6ac7f19cd384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11283:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa House Reit Investment</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tosoh-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7011:1" rel="noopener">Tosoh Corp</a> will have passive selling at the close on 29 February.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased on all these stocks over the last few weeks and there has been big underperformance versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a>.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume has increased on the stocks and there will be short covering in the last week of the month.</li>
</ul>



BayCurrent Consulting, Open House, Sumitomo Chemical, Koei Tecmo Holdings, Kose Corp, Oji Holdings, Daiwa House Reit Investment and Tosoh Corp will have passive selling at the close on 29 February.
Short interest has increased on all these stocks over the last few weeks and there has been big underperformance versus the Nikkei 225 Index and TOPIX Index.
Cumulative excess volume has increased on the stocks and there will be short covering in the last week of the month.


Japan - Shorts & Positioning on Passive Sells

<ul>
<li>There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.</li>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.</li>
</ul>


There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.
The review period for the March rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.
There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

Japan

Open House Co.,Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company offers services including renting, buying, selling and appraising real estate.

Open House (3288 JP)

Japan - Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks; Positioning Appears Light

There could be selling in 5-6 Japan stocks from global passive portfolios next month. Short buildup is smaller than the expected passive selling...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

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Japan - Shorts & Positioning on Passive Sells

8 stocks in Japan will have big passive selling at the close on 29 February. Short interest has increased on the stocks and cumulative excess...

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Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas