Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).   

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hikari-tsushin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4909:1" rel="noopener">Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)</a> announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> partnering with MBK and NEC Capital, taking out Fortress' last 15%. </li>
<li>Hikari Tsushin bought its large stake very low in 2022, post-scandal. Fortress did too. Murakami tried earlier, failed. Others made money on it. </li>
<li>This deal offers near zero basic transparency, and comes at a sharp discount to the midpoint of the fair value DCF ranges. Very not a good look. But it's vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP) announced a deal to buy out Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) partnering with MBK and NEC Capital, taking out Fortress' last 15%. 
Hikari Tsushin bought its large stake very low in 2022, post-scandal. Fortress did too. Murakami tried earlier, failed. Others made money on it. 
This deal offers near zero basic transparency, and comes at a sharp discount to the midpoint of the fair value DCF ranges. Very not a good look. But it's vulnerable.


[Japan M&A] Hikari Tsushin + Friends to Buy Leopalace21 (8848) - Light Bid, Somewhat Open Register

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Japan

Open House Co.,Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company offers services including renting, buying, selling and appraising real estate.

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Open House (3288 JP)

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] Hikari Tsushin + Friends to Buy Leopalace21 (8848) - Light Bid, Somewhat Open Register

Hikari Tsushin bought 18% of Leopalace 4 years ago very cheaply. Fortress bought more. Now Fortress is getting out and HT has invited 2 others to...

Travis Lundy

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

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