Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> closed the week down (CC=-2) at 32307.86, it's OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. </li>
<li>Our hypothesis is that this pullback is about to end (it could last maybe another week, or maybe it's already over...), and will be followed by higher prices.</li>
<li>Go LONG the Nikkei 225 in the support area between 31000 and 32000, this coming week.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) closed the week down (CC=-2) at 32307.86, it's OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. 
Our hypothesis is that this pullback is about to end (it could last maybe another week, or maybe it's already over...), and will be followed by higher prices.
Go LONG the Nikkei 225 in the support area between 31000 and 32000, this coming week.


Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.</li>
<li>Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.</li>
<li>Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.</li>
</ul>


The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.
Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.
Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.


Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

<ul>
<li>After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart. </li>
<li>There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to &lt;= 31672, and December closes down.</li>
<li>Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.</li>
</ul>


After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart. 
There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to &lt;= 31672, and December closes down.
Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Analysis

The Nikkei 225 closed the week down and is oversold, but our models suggest that the pullback is ending and higher prices may follow. The...

Nico Rosti

Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

Central Bank Governors are trained to speak sparsely. And there is a good reason for that. For when they speak, markets gyrate furiously. Short...

Mint Finance

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes at the March rebal. Socionext moves up the add list following the stock split. Fast Retailing is back above 11% index...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Nikkei 225 WEEKLY Analysis

​The Nikkei 225 closed the week down and is oversold, but our models suggest that the pullback is ending and higher prices may follow. The...

Nico Rosti

Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

Central Bank Governors are trained to speak sparsely. And there is a good reason for that. For when they speak, markets gyrate furiously. Short...

Mint Finance

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

​The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes at the March rebal. Socionext moves up the add list following the stock split. Fast Retailing is back above 11% index...

Brian Freitas

The Nikkei 225 closed the week down and is oversold, but our models suggest that the pullback is ending and higher prices may follow. The...

The Nikkei is in a temporary correction phase, with 2 possible paths ahead: a modest pullback followed by a rally, or a dive below 32000 with...