Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  Strong ISM, Higher Yields, Strong USD = Equity Sell off; Oaktree's Marks sees rise in default from higher rates; Germany Industrial Orders fall; China bans iPhones in Govt offices</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.7; JP Govt official raises threat of FX intervention with weakening Yen; Inflation fears drive Gold purchases; Japan Defense Agency courting new Tech</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Panasonic CEO Aims to Triple P/B Ratio, Focusing on EV Battery Growth. Other Japanese firms should take heed. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  Strong ISM, Higher Yields, Strong USD = Equity Sell off; Oaktree's Marks sees rise in default from higher rates; Germany Industrial Orders fall; China bans iPhones in Govt offices
JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.7; JP Govt official raises threat of FX intervention with weakening Yen; Inflation fears drive Gold purchases; Japan Defense Agency courting new Tech
JAPAN X: Panasonic CEO Aims to Triple P/B Ratio, Focusing on EV Battery Growth. Other Japanese firms should take heed. 


Ohayo Japan|Strong ISM, Rate Fears Sinks Stocks; JAPAN X: Panasonic Tgts 3x PBR with EV Batteries

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.</li>
<li>On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.</li>
<li>Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.</li>
</ul>



Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Ongoing Focus on Rising Yields As Equities fall(again); US10Yr hits 4.19% as US Gov ramps up borrowing; China continues to shore up Economy; Resilient Apple, Amazon Earnings. </li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield rise; Nikkei sheds 1200 points in 2 days in risk off - still+23%YTD. </li>
<li>NUGGET.  Another sign that Japanese investors are not standing still as domestic inflation takes hold - Record purchases of high-yielding (+high risk!) currencies in the first half of the year.  </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Ongoing Focus on Rising Yields As Equities fall(again); US10Yr hits 4.19% as US Gov ramps up borrowing; China continues to shore up Economy; Resilient Apple, Amazon Earnings. 
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield rise; Nikkei sheds 1200 points in 2 days in risk off - still+23%YTD. 
NUGGET.  Another sign that Japanese investors are not standing still as domestic inflation takes hold - Record purchases of high-yielding (+high risk!) currencies in the first half of the year.  


Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game - Japanese Investors on the Hunt

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nintendo reported operating profit of 190b yen (-8% YoY), falling far short of Street expectations</li>
<li>The Nintendo Switch is now a six-year old console and demand is exhausted. A normalization of chip/supply chain issues benefits the newer PS5</li>
<li>Our thesis is that the hardware cycle has peaked and that the share price will head lower in tandem with the dwindling top line</li>
</ul>


Nintendo reported operating profit of 190b yen (-8% YoY), falling far short of Street expectations
The Nintendo Switch is now a six-year old console and demand is exhausted. A normalization of chip/supply chain issues benefits the newer PS5
Our thesis is that the hardware cycle has peaked and that the share price will head lower in tandem with the dwindling top line


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing - generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company's earnings and share price outlook </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing - generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company's earnings and share price outlook 


Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

Ohayo Japan|Strong ISM, Rate Fears Sinks Stocks; JAPAN X: Panasonic Tgts 3x PBR with EV Batteries

Strong ISM Print sparks rate/inflation fears - US stocks sinks. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.7; JP Govt official raises threat of FX...

Mark Chadwick

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Too Far Too Fast

Bank of Kyoto (8369) has a 50% payout but its shareholder base isn’t that supportive of activism need to monetise the value of the equity...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game - Japanese Investors on the Hunt

US Yields higher; SPX500 falls again; Apple, Amazon beat; Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield...

Mark Chadwick

Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch

NEW: 1Q operating profit at Y185bn (+82% YoY) and above street forecast of Y144b. The key difference is likely royalty income from the Mario Movie...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

SPX Up(agaiin); NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates; Earnings in full swing -...

Mark Chadwick

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