Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks - 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; 
JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks - 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing
NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.


Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Plus Alpha Consulting / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plus-alpha-consulting-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33441:1" rel="noopener">Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP)</a> (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.</li>
<li>PAC was listed in 2021 and after a somewhat tepid initial performance it has been doing well over the past year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.
PAC was listed in 2021 and after a somewhat tepid initial performance it has been doing well over the past year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework


Plus Alpha Consulting Placement - Pulling Out All Stops for Deal Success as Insiders Are Selling

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/socionext-placement-a-us-1-8bn-cleanup-will-have-to-give-up-some-of-its-6x-listing-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:106206" rel="noopener">Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains.
In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.


Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)
NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !


Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

US Equities rebound as confidence grows in Golilocks trade; NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks -To buy 10 year bonds at 1%.; Next...

Mark Chadwick

Plus Alpha Consulting Placement - Pulling Out All Stops for Deal Success as Insiders Are Selling

Three shareholders of Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.

Sumeet Singh

Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

US back to Declines as Feb Minutes indicate Hikes ahead; NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7; RENGO confirms largest wage Hike in 3 decades - but...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

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