External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Eleven Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Aug 2023 sales volumes on 1 Sep 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the 11 automakers combined rose 68% YoY (ranged from -50% to +1,218%) and 5% MoM (ranged from -9% to +24%) in Aug 2023.</li><li>NEV trio largely in line. Li Auto’s recorded a sales volume of almost 35,000 units in Aug 2023, with all three models surpassing 10,000 units. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Eleven Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Aug 2023 sales volumes on 1 Sep 2023.Sales volume of the 11 automakers combined rose 68% YoY (ranged from -50% to +1,218%) and 5% MoM (ranged from -9% to +24%) in Aug 2023.NEV trio largely in line. Li Auto’s recorded a sales volume of almost 35,000 units in Aug 2023, with all three models surpassing 10,000 units. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – In-line Aug NEV retail sales volume

<ul>
<li>We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li>
<li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li>
<li>We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.
Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.
We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

<ul><li>European Parliament has approved the law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans in EU from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to EV and combat climate change.</li><li>The law has been drafted and agreed by EU countries last October and finally legislated on 14 Feb 2022.</li><li>EU targets to reduce 100% CO2 emission produced by new cars and vans in 2035 with an intermediate goal of 55% for cars and 50% for vans in 2030.</li></ul>

European Parliament has approved the law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans in EU from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to EV and combat climate change.The law has been drafted and agreed by EU countries last October and finally legislated on 14 Feb 2022.EU targets to reduce 100% CO2 emission produced by new cars and vans in 2035 with an intermediate goal of 55% for cars and 50% for vans in 2030.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Eight new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, AITO, Neta and Leap reported their Aug 2022 sales volumes on 1 Sep 2022.</li><li>Sales volume of the eight brands combined rose 117% YoY (ranged from -52% to +193%) and 2% MoM (ranged from -56% to +43%).</li><li>NIO leads among NEV trio. NIO was the only automaker among the NEV trio with MoM growth in sales volume, which is consistent with our prior argument that NIO should have the best sequential growth in sales volume among the NEV trio in 3Q22. We estimate the ET7 has about 4-5 months of order backlog.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Eight new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, AITO, Neta and Leap reported their Aug 2022 sales volumes on 1 Sep 2022.Sales volume of the eight brands combined rose 117% YoY (ranged from -52% to +193%) and 2% MoM (ranged from -56% to +43%).NIO leads among NEV trio. NIO was the only automaker among the NEV trio with MoM growth in sales volume, which is consistent with our prior argument that NIO should have the best sequential growth in sales volume among the NEV trio in 3Q22. We estimate the ET7 has about 4-5 months of order backlog.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Aug NEV: All-time high sales for tier-2 brands

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.</li><li>We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.</li><li>Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

China

NIO designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles, including sedans and SUVs under its NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY brands. The company also offers innovative power solutions such as battery swapping services and various charging options. NIO was founded in November 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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NIO (9866 HK)

China Auto Sector – In-line Aug NEV retail sales volume

Eleven Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Aug 2023...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Tactical Trade Idea – Auto Sector

EU zero-emission target by 2035 may place Chinese carmakers on the fast track. The law has been drafted and agreed by EU countries last October and...

Quam Securities

China Auto Sector – Aug NEV: All-time high sales for tier-2 brands

Sales volume of the eight brands combined rose 117% YoY (ranged from -52% to +193%) and 2% MoM (ranged from -56% to +43%).

CMB International

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn. We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent...

CMB International

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