Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

On 20 August 2021, the Cyberspace Administration of China and the Ministry of Transport, together with other relevant authorities, jointly issued the Provisions on Management of Automotive Data Security (Trial) ("Auto Data Provisions"). 
The Auto Data Provisions since took effect on 1 October 2021 to limited fanfare, with media headlines instead focused on the Personal Information Protection Law ("PIPL"), which took effect on 1 November 2021, and specific affected sectors, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/chinese-online-brokers-futu-up-fintech-face-regulatory-risks-peoples-daily-2021-10-14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China online brokerages</a>. 
Further, on 29 October 2021, regulators issued <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-to-tighten-rules-on-data-transfers-abroad-with-review-trigger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">draft data protection regulations</a> which provide that businesses in China face a national security review prior to transfers outside the country of personal information of 100,000 individuals or more.  The draft consultation period will last through 28 November 2021, following which the directives would likely take effect soon after. 
EVs of today are no longer a mere mode of transport that depend on analog platforms.  As EV companies race to develop autonomous driving technologies, most if not all EV companies now harness vast amounts of users and real-time mobility data.  Think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>. 
Yet, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>, Chinese EV manufacturers (all listed in the US) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> have remained largely unscathed from the news flow and analysis surrounding data security in China. 
In this Insight, we discuss what the Auto Data Provisions entail, whether Chinese EV companies face any repercussions from tightening of data security laws, and which one is the most at risk.

On 20 August 2021, the Cyberspace Administration of China and the Ministry of Transport, together with other relevant authorities, jointly issued the Provisions on Management of Automotive Data Security (Trial) ("Auto Data Provisions"). 
The Auto Data Provisions since took effect on 1 October 2021 to limited fanfare, with media headlines instead focused on the Personal Information Protection Law ("PIPL"), which took effect on 1 November 2021, and specific affected sectors, such as China online brokerages. 
Further, on 29 October 2021, regulators issued draft data protection regulations which provide that businesses in China face a national security review prior to transfers outside the country of personal information of 100,000 individuals or more.  The draft consultation period will last through 28 November 2021, following which the directives would likely take effect soon after. 
EVs of today are no longer a mere mode of transport that depend on analog platforms.  As EV companies race to develop autonomous driving technologies, most if not all EV companies now harness vast amounts of users and real-time mobility data.  Think DiDi Global (DIDI US). 
Yet, apart from Tesla Motors (TSLA US), Chinese EV manufacturers (all listed in the US) such as NIO Inc (NIO US), Xpeng (XPEV US) and Li Auto Inc. (LI US) have remained largely unscathed from the news flow and analysis surrounding data security in China. 
In this Insight, we discuss what the Auto Data Provisions entail, whether Chinese EV companies face any repercussions from tightening of data security laws, and which one is the most at risk. 

Nio Inc (Nio US) - Automotive Data Security, Delivery Declines and Hefei Investors

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And EV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng (XPEV.US; 9868.HK) reported millimetre radar supply shortage at end October. And, with China's local Covid new cases increasing, auto sector's supply chain might get tightened further in short term.However, according to customers' reaction to optional delivery plans offered by Xpeng and Li Auto for customers whose new car delivery would be affected in Nov, we estimate negative impact on Xpeng would be limit. And Xpeng's new car delivery would continue increase MoM in the rest of this year.In October, Xpeng delivered 10,138 new cars, compared to Li Auto's 7,649 cars and NIO's (NIO.US) 3,667 cars.BUY Xpeng.

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And EV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng (XPEV.US; 9868.HK) reported millimetre radar supply shortage at end October. And, with China's local Covid new cases increasing, auto sector's supply chain might get tightened further in short term.However, according to customers' reaction to optional delivery plans offered by Xpeng and Li Auto for customers whose new car delivery would be affected in Nov, we estimate negative impact on Xpeng would be limit. And Xpeng's new car delivery would continue increase MoM in the rest of this year.In October, Xpeng delivered 10,138 new cars, compared to Li Auto's 7,649 cars and NIO's (NIO.US) 3,667 cars.BUY Xpeng.

China Auto: Outstanding Xpeng in Dark Moment

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. DiDi has endured a torrid time since its listing on 30 June to raise net proceeds of $4,331.6 million at $14.00 per ADS. The shares are trading 40% below its IPO price as days after its listing, DiDi’s apps were taken down from app stores in China by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). DiDi ran afoul of CAC when it pressed ahead with its listing, despite CAC asking it to put the listing on hold while it conducted a cybersecurity review of its collection and use of personal information. Subsequently, the official Xinhua news agency on 10 October claimed that the CAC probe was aimed at “effectively preventing potential national security risks relating to procurement, data processing and overseas listings.”DIDi has been ensnared by regulatory probes into its pricing mechanisms and the way it treats its drivers. DiDi also been subject to rumours in the press that the Chinese government is weighing asserting state control by taking a stake in the company. Press reports have also suggested that DiDi is planning to delist from the US which was later confirmed by DiDi to be false.Since the regulatory clampdown, DiDi has not released its 2Q21 results or provided any financial guidance. However, due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. On 6 September, Cao Cao Mobility, a peer, raised RMB3.8 billion ($588 million) from Chinese state-owned funds to accelerate its expansion. DiDi’s average daily user count declined 30% to 10.9 million in August from 15.6 million in June, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aurora-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27264:1" rel="noopener">Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US)</a>.DiDi continues to polarise opinions with some investors suggesting that the stock can double from current levels while others are wary due to unpredictable regulatory risks. Due to the number of unknowns, we examine DiDi's outlook through scenarios analysis. A key difference between the bull and bear case is the timing for the reinstatement of DiDi’s apps on the app stores which will once again enable DiDi to grow market share and regain pricing power. <div class="content-highlight">Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside to the last close price of $8.56 per ADS. Consequently, the shares seem fairly valued and may appeal to investors with a higher risk appetite.  </div>

DiDi Global (DIDI US) is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. DiDi has endured a torrid time since its listing on 30 June to raise net proceeds of $4,331.6 million at $14.00 per ADS. The shares are trading 40% below its IPO price as days after its listing, DiDi’s apps were taken down from app stores in China by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC). DiDi ran afoul of CAC when it pressed ahead with its listing, despite CAC asking it to put the listing on hold while it conducted a cybersecurity review of its collection and use of personal information. Subsequently, the official Xinhua news agency on 10 October claimed that the CAC probe was aimed at “effectively preventing potential national security risks relating to procurement, data processing and overseas listings.”DIDi has been ensnared by regulatory probes into its pricing mechanisms and the way it treats its drivers. DiDi also been subject to rumours in the press that the Chinese government is weighing asserting state control by taking a stake in the company. Press reports have also suggested that DiDi is planning to delist from the US which was later confirmed by DiDi to be false.Since the regulatory clampdown, DiDi has not released its 2Q21 results or provided any financial guidance. However, due to the regulatory restrictions, DiDi is losing market share and pricing power to competitors in China. On 6 September, Cao Cao Mobility, a peer, raised RMB3.8 billion ($588 million) from Chinese state-owned funds to accelerate its expansion. DiDi’s average daily user count declined 30% to 10.9 million in August from 15.6 million in June, according to Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG US).DiDi continues to polarise opinions with some investors suggesting that the stock can double from current levels while others are wary due to unpredictable regulatory risks. Due to the number of unknowns, we examine DiDi's outlook through scenarios analysis. A key difference between the bull and bear case is the timing for the reinstatement of DiDi’s apps on the app stores which will once again enable DiDi to grow market share and regain pricing power. Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside to the last close price of $8.56 per ADS. Consequently, the shares seem fairly valued and may appeal to investors with a higher risk appetite.  

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

New data out this week from China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC) revealed Tesla's monthly sales in China plummeting in August for both Model 3 and Model Y.The results are dramatically different worse versus what had been reported previously by China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) using data provided by Tesla.So different that it also looks like Tesla reported misleading data to Chinese authorities.

New data out this week from China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC) revealed Tesla's monthly sales in China plummeting in August for both Model 3 and Model Y.The results are dramatically different worse versus what had been reported previously by China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) using data provided by Tesla.So different that it also looks like Tesla reported misleading data to Chinese authorities.

Tesla's August Sales Numbers in China Don't Add Up

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<div>
In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn.  Highlights:
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>The big four of China &amp; HK, Taiwan, South Korea and India dominate holdings in Asia Ex-Japan.  The 4 countries combined account for 85.4% of total allocations, though all but India are held underweight versus the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index.</li>
<li>China &amp; HK's weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a 4-year low of 42.96% having fallen heavily from the high of 52% back in August 2020.</li>
<li>Allocations in Indian stocks hit a new all-time high last month of 13.54%.  India has been the go-to overweight holding since the election of Narendra Modi in 2014, though managers are much more closely aligned to benchmark today.</li>
<li>
Indonesian allocations are close to their lowest levels on record.  Only 82.8% of the Asia Ex-Japan managers in our analysis have exposure to Indonesia,  with Comgest, Barings and Vontobel closing exposure over the last 6-months.
</li>
<li>Information Technology dominates the holdings picture, being both the largest sector holding and the largest sector overweight by some distance.  Opposing this are net underweights in Health Care (-1.61%), Materials (-1.25%) and Financials (-1.17%). </li>
<li>The key antagonist in China's tech crackdown, Consumer Discretionary weights have fallen from a high of 21.35% in October 2020 to 16.84% today.  In tandem, active managers have moved from an overweight of 2.18% to an underweight of -0.12%.  Confidence has certainly taken a knock.</li>
</ul>
Also analyzed in more detail:  Thailand, Health Care, Indian Financials, South Korean Consumer Staples, China Financials, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US).</a>
Analysis taken from our Asia Ex-Japan research, covering 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn. 
</div>


In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn.  Highlights:



The big four of China &amp; HK, Taiwan, South Korea and India dominate holdings in Asia Ex-Japan.  The 4 countries combined account for 85.4% of total allocations, though all but India are held underweight versus the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index.
China &amp; HK's weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a 4-year low of 42.96% having fallen heavily from the high of 52% back in August 2020.
Allocations in Indian stocks hit a new all-time high last month of 13.54%.  India has been the go-to overweight holding since the election of Narendra Modi in 2014, though managers are much more closely aligned to benchmark today.

Indonesian allocations are close to their lowest levels on record.  Only 82.8% of the Asia Ex-Japan managers in our analysis have exposure to Indonesia,  with Comgest, Barings and Vontobel closing exposure over the last 6-months.

Information Technology dominates the holdings picture, being both the largest sector holding and the largest sector overweight by some distance.  Opposing this are net underweights in Health Care (-1.61%), Materials (-1.25%) and Financials (-1.17%). 
The key antagonist in China's tech crackdown, Consumer Discretionary weights have fallen from a high of 21.35% in October 2020 to 16.84% today.  In tandem, active managers have moved from an overweight of 2.18% to an underweight of -0.12%.  Confidence has certainly taken a knock.

Also analyzed in more detail:  Thailand, Health Care, Indian Financials, South Korean Consumer Staples, China Financials, Baidu (BIDU US) , Sea Ltd (SE US) , Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US).
Analysis taken from our Asia Ex-Japan research, covering 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn. 


Asia Ex-Japan Positioning:  India & Tech at Record Highs

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

Nio Inc (Nio US) - Automotive Data Security, Delivery Declines and Hefei Investors

In this Insight, we discuss the impact of tightening auto data security laws, Oct 2021 delivery declines and residual Hefei investors risks on Nio...

Jason Yap, CFA

China Auto: Outstanding Xpeng in Dark Moment

As expected, auto chip shortage issue wasn't eased in October. And NEV players started getting affected. Both Li Auto (Li.US; 2015.HK) and Xpeng...

Victoria Li

DiDi Global: Time to Book a Ride?

Our bull-case SoTP valuation points to a 22% upside while our bear-case SoTP valuation points to a -19% downside. The shares seem fairly valued and...

Arun George

Tesla's August Sales Numbers in China Don't Add Up

New data out this week revealed much weaker monthly sales in China in August versus previously reported. So different it looks like Tesla reported...

Vicki Bryan

Asia Ex-Japan Positioning: India & Tech at Record Highs

In this analysis, we provide a detailed overview of investor positioning among 96 active Asia Ex-Japan funds with combined AUM of $80bn.

Steven Holden

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