Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Last autumn, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was IPOed by KKR. The lockup expires next week, on 21 April 2024 (a Sunday). That frees up about 70% of the stock.</li>
<li>KKR's own stake is worth about US$2.8bn. It is not clear that Applied Materials, Qatar, or the Koch Strategic Platforms stakes would be for sale (now, or near-term).</li>
<li>There is an interesting schedule of events between here and a likely offering date. It pays to pay attention to the details. </li>
</ul>


Last autumn, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed by KKR. The lockup expires next week, on 21 April 2024 (a Sunday). That frees up about 70% of the stock.
KKR's own stake is worth about US$2.8bn. It is not clear that Applied Materials, Qatar, or the Koch Strategic Platforms stakes would be for sale (now, or near-term).
There is an interesting schedule of events between here and a likely offering date. It pays to pay attention to the details. 


Kokusai Elec (6525) - The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Reportedly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?</li>
</ul>


Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) vs. Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Reportedly, Singtel (ST SP) is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. 

Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

<ul>
<li>The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That's an 8.7% discount for no dilution. </li>
<li>Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.</li>
<li>Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.</li>
</ul>


The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That's an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.


Nippon Express (9147 JP) - Buying the Overhang

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> was hoping for better luck with its listing this time around.</li>
<li>For placements, it was a very busy week for a change with most regions, apart from Hong Kong, chipping in.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Trial Holdings (5882 JP) was hoping for better luck with its listing this time around.
For placements, it was a very busy week for a change with most regions, apart from Hong Kong, chipping in.


ECM Weekly (11th Mar 2024) - Oriental Land, ARM, Tuhu, Wiwynn, Macrotech, Zomato, Trial Holding

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)</a> placement and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO, Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) placement and ARM Holdings (ARM US) lock-up expiry.
Event-Driven developments: JSR Corp (4185 JP), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Vinda International (3331 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Mar) - Trial, ARM, JSR, Nippon Express, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda

Japan

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

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Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)

Kokusai Elec (6525) - The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry

Kokusai Electric was ¥4310 the day after I wrote. Fell to ¥3700-3800 before re-attaining ¥4000+ today. STILL has an overhang issue. Given no...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nippon Express (9147 JP) - Buying the Overhang

NX (9147) saw its Offering price today. It priced down nearly 9% from pre-announcement. No dilution, and net mitigants are half the offering. It...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (11th Mar 2024) - Oriental Land, ARM, Tuhu, Wiwynn, Macrotech, Zomato, Trial Holding

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Mar) - Trial, ARM, JSR, Nippon Express, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (JSR, Alumina, Azure, Genex, Vinda) and ECM (ARM, Trial Holdings, Nippon Express).

Arun George

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