Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A double-dose of StubWorld today: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-chemical-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12781:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)</a> (MCG) is trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sanso-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on MCG and Nippon Sanso are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%</li>
</ul>


A double-dose of StubWorld today: Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP) (MCG) is trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP).
Preceding my comments on MCG and Nippon Sanso are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%


StubWorld: Mitsu Chem (4188 JP) Trading Rich To Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>While the world is obsessing about AI, there's been a quiet bull market in the world's industrial gas companies.</li><li>Stocks like Linde (LNA US – US$245 billion) and Nippon Sanso (4091 JP – US$16 billion) have both been ten-baggers since the early 2000s</li><li>However, there's been one major laggard: Japan's Air Water (4088 JP – US$3.8 billion). </li></ul>

While the world is obsessing about AI, there's been a quiet bull market in the world's industrial gas companies.Stocks like Linde (LNA US – US$245 billion) and Nippon Sanso (4091 JP – US$16 billion) have both been ten-baggers since the early 2000sHowever, there's been one major laggard: Japan's Air Water (4088 JP – US$3.8 billion). 

Air Water (4088 JP): Japan’s Second-Largest Industrial Gas Business in Full-On Restructuring Mode

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>'s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.
Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.</li>
<li>Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.</li>
<li>Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.</li>
</ul>


SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.
Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.
Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.


Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> wants to buy 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE (4477 JP)</a> out of 46.7% likely available. That's unlikely at ¥340; they'll have to bump to get those shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a> has played out nicely. There's still money on the table - just a question mark on timing for the distribution from "surplus cash".</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-chemical-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12781:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)</a>'s turnaround narrative sees it trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sanso-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)</a>'s steady-as-you-go narrative.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) wants to buy 20% of BASE (4477 JP) out of 46.7% likely available. That's unlikely at ¥340; they'll have to bump to get those shares.

Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK) has played out nicely. There's still money on the table - just a question mark on timing for the distribution from "surplus cash".

Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)'s turnaround narrative sees it trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)'s steady-as-you-go narrative.


Last Week In Event SPACE: SBI/BASE, Con Aero Tech, Mitsubishi Chem/Nippon Sanso, Swire Pac, Jollibee

Japan

Nippon Sanso Holdings produces various kinds of industrial gases including oxygen, argon, and nitrogen.  The Company also manufactures frozen foods and thermos.

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Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)

StubWorld: Mitsu Chem (4188 JP) Trading Rich To Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)

Nippon Sanso's ops are defensive and stable; but that steady-as-you-go story has lagged MCG's turnaround narrative & shift toward higher‑margin...

David Blennerhassett

Air Water (4088 JP): Japan’s Second-Largest Industrial Gas Business in Full-On Restructuring Mode

While the world is obsessing about AI, there's been a quiet bull market in the world's industrial gas companies. Stocks like Linde (LNA US –...

Asian Century Stocks

Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.

Sumeet Singh

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

SMCI Nvidia chip smuggling charges hit server and memory names. Japan's SPE names likely muted at open after missing Thursday's US rebound during...

Andrew Jackson

Last Week In Event SPACE: SBI/BASE, Con Aero Tech, Mitsubishi Chem/Nippon Sanso, Swire Pac, Jollibee

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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