Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcast<div>We have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…</div>

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"</li>
<li>That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.</li>
<li>Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"
That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.
Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.


Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.</li>
<li>The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.</li>
<li>The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.
The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.
The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Specialty chemical makers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shokubai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19373:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-chemical-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16624:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Chemical Industries (4471 JP)</a> have owned small stakes in each other for years. It was, at a certain point, only natural that they should gravitate to each other so that Nippon Shokubai's position as a specialized producer of basic and functional chemicals would integrate somewhat vertically with Sanyo's business of manufacturing and marketing an extremely broad range of performance chemicals. As competition increased at home and abroad for the business of super-absorbent polymers which have become a decent business line for both, finding synergies in production and sales made a lot of sense. That was the story in May 2019 when the two agreed to pursue management integration. There was a hiccup as Nippon Shokubai had to lower forecasts less than a quarter later, but by the end of November 2019, the two companies had found a share exchange ratio which seemed to me to be favorable to Nippon Shokubai compared to Sanyo Chemical. Then Nippon Shokubai lowered its forecasts to March 2020 a second time just two months after setting the ratio. That apparently upset the Sanyo Chem CEO somewhat, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sanyochem-nipponshokubai-merger-redo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38385" rel="noopener">SanyoChem/NipponShokubai - Merger Redo</a> in April 2020 when the two companies decided to delay their integration plans from October 2020 to April 2021 to review the ratio.<div class="content-remarks">The Nikkei interviews with the the two CEOs emphasized the nature of this review differently, but the published announcement was called “Notice Regarding the Postponement of the Business Integration by Way of Joint Share Transfer Between Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. and Sanyo Chemical Industries, Ltd. and the Reassessment of the Share Transfer Ratio.”</div><h3>The NEW News</h3>Six months on from that announcement, the two companies yesterday <a href="https://www.sanyo-chemical.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/k20201021_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> they would not go ahead with their business integration plans saying the worsening/uncertain external environment related to COVID-19 and lower oil/petrochem prices made it "difficult to conduct the business integration." <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/546/original/Screenshot%202020-10-21%20at%207.41.45%20PM.png?1603280519" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166546"></figure></section>There is precious little in the media early to explain the breakup, but the fact that the two firms put out forecasts only in August after Q1, then Nippon Shokubai lowered its own fiscal year forecast yet again 13 days ago downgrade "significantly changed the preconditions" for the merger, said Sanyo Chemical President Takao Ando according to a Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-chemical-merger-foiled-by-divergent-diaper-visions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> this morning, which continues that he was the one to bring up the idea of breaking off the deal. Based on the friendly commentary noted, I expect that the fundamentally-justified merger ratio which would favor Sanyo Chemical a fair bit more than expected, was probably a step too far for Nippon Shokubai which could not "afford" the hit to its dignity to pay up that far. To some extent the blame must rest on Sanyo Chemical for accepting the ratio they did in the first place. It was too low to start and did not account for Sanyo Chemical's diversity, restructuring efforts in the prior 24 months, and the growth segments ahead in areas such as polymer batteries. The Nikkei article in Japanese last night pointed out there was a "temperature difference in growth strategy" (Sanyo Chemical is focussed on fostering new business growth while Shokubai is focussed on growing its existing Super Absorbent Polymer (SAP) business (together the two companies have something like 30% of the world market but Shokubai gets about 50% of its business from that while for Sanyo Chemical it is 30% and they are trying to grow more to higher value-add product lines with less competition from China and Korea (which have been ramping up their SAP capabilities).So the question is... What next?Longer-term readers of this series of insights will know my basic position. That has not changed. If you had the ratio bet on, there will be some noise because the unwinding of speculative positioning regarding the merger ratio for almost all players will involve selling Sanyo Chem and buying back Nippon Shokubai, and if anything, people might have been net long, but it is not clear to me that such speculative positions, held longer, will not continue to gain. More below the fold.

Specialty chemical makers Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) and Sanyo Chemical Industries (4471 JP) have owned small stakes in each other for years. It was, at a certain point, only natural that they should gravitate to each other so that Nippon Shokubai's position as a specialized producer of basic and functional chemicals would integrate somewhat vertically with Sanyo's business of manufacturing and marketing an extremely broad range of performance chemicals. As competition increased at home and abroad for the business of super-absorbent polymers which have become a decent business line for both, finding synergies in production and sales made a lot of sense. That was the story in May 2019 when the two agreed to pursue management integration. There was a hiccup as Nippon Shokubai had to lower forecasts less than a quarter later, but by the end of November 2019, the two companies had found a share exchange ratio which seemed to me to be favorable to Nippon Shokubai compared to Sanyo Chemical. Then Nippon Shokubai lowered its forecasts to March 2020 a second time just two months after setting the ratio. That apparently upset the Sanyo Chem CEO somewhat, as discussed in SanyoChem/NipponShokubai - Merger Redo in April 2020 when the two companies decided to delay their integration plans from October 2020 to April 2021 to review the ratio.The Nikkei interviews with the the two CEOs emphasized the nature of this review differently, but the published announcement was called “Notice Regarding the Postponement of the Business Integration by Way of Joint Share Transfer Between Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. and Sanyo Chemical Industries, Ltd. and the Reassessment of the Share Transfer Ratio.”The NEW NewsSix months on from that announcement, the two companies yesterday announced they would not go ahead with their business integration plans saying the worsening/uncertain external environment related to COVID-19 and lower oil/petrochem prices made it "difficult to conduct the business integration." There is precious little in the media early to explain the breakup, but the fact that the two firms put out forecasts only in August after Q1, then Nippon Shokubai lowered its own fiscal year forecast yet again 13 days ago downgrade "significantly changed the preconditions" for the merger, said Sanyo Chemical President Takao Ando according to a Nikkei article this morning, which continues that he was the one to bring up the idea of breaking off the deal. Based on the friendly commentary noted, I expect that the fundamentally-justified merger ratio which would favor Sanyo Chemical a fair bit more than expected, was probably a step too far for Nippon Shokubai which could not "afford" the hit to its dignity to pay up that far. To some extent the blame must rest on Sanyo Chemical for accepting the ratio they did in the first place. It was too low to start and did not account for Sanyo Chemical's diversity, restructuring efforts in the prior 24 months, and the growth segments ahead in areas such as polymer batteries. The Nikkei article in Japanese last night pointed out there was a "temperature difference in growth strategy" (Sanyo Chemical is focussed on fostering new business growth while Shokubai is focussed on growing its existing Super Absorbent Polymer (SAP) business (together the two companies have something like 30% of the world market but Shokubai gets about 50% of its business from that while for Sanyo Chemical it is 30% and they are trying to grow more to higher value-add product lines with less competition from China and Korea (which have been ramping up their SAP capabilities).So the question is... What next?Longer-term readers of this series of insights will know my basic position. That has not changed. If you had the ratio bet on, there will be some noise because the unwinding of speculative positioning regarding the merger ratio for almost all players will involve selling Sanyo Chem and buying back Nippon Shokubai, and if anything, people might have been net long, but it is not clear to me that such speculative positions, held longer, will not continue to gain. More below the fold.

SanyoChem/Shokubai Deal Cancelled - The Trick Is NOT to Look Inside the Diaper

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of its periodic review. In a 'surprise', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> will be added to the index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-kayaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6971:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP)</a> will be deleted from the index.The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.At between 25-26m shares to buy (2.2% of its real world float and less than 3 days of ADV to buy), the impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp 9434 JP)</a> will be minimal. The overhang of the block offering announced on 28 August should keep a lid on the stock for the time being.The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-kayaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6971:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP)</a> is expected to be much larger. The 25-26m shares to sell is over 13% of the shares outstanding and represents over 40 days of ADV and this could lead to a sharp move lower in the stock.Surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> has not been deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>'s offer to take the company private. The FamilyMart deletion could be done in an adhoc review or announced after the implementation of the Share Consolidation and implemented along with the annual review. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a> as the most likely replacement candidates.

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of its periodic review. In a 'surprise', Softbank Corp (9434 JP) will be added to the index and Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP) will be deleted from the index.The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.At between 25-26m shares to buy (2.2% of its real world float and less than 3 days of ADV to buy), the impact on Softbank Corp 9434 JP) will be minimal. The overhang of the block offering announced on 28 August should keep a lid on the stock for the time being.The impact on Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP) is expected to be much larger. The 25-26m shares to sell is over 13% of the shares outstanding and represents over 40 days of ADV and this could lead to a sharp move lower in the stock.Surprisingly, FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) has not been deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) following Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s offer to take the company private. The FamilyMart deletion could be done in an adhoc review or announced after the implementation of the Share Consolidation and implemented along with the annual review. We see ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) and Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP) as the most likely replacement candidates.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Softbank Corp IN, Nippon Kayaku OUT

Japan

NIPPON SHOKUBAI CO., LTD. manufactures and sells basic and fine chemicals, synthetic resins, and catalysts.  The Company's products include acrylic acid, super absorbent polymers, and automobile catalysts.  Nippon Shokubai exports to Germany, US, and Singapore.

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Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP)

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Nikon is a cheap company with dual personalities, which keeps its multiple low. It has cash and securities too. Silchester bought 5% and Bloomberg...

Travis Lundy

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Shin Etsu Chem (4063) is cheapest in a decade to peers on an EV/forward EBIT and forward PER basis. Blowout Q1 earnings and another big buyback. ex...

Travis Lundy

SanyoChem/Shokubai Deal Cancelled - The Trick Is NOT to Look Inside the Diaper

The Sanyo Chem / Nippon Shokubai merger deal is... not. Yesterday the two companies decided to cancel integration plans. The SC CEO made clear that...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Softbank Corp IN, Nippon Kayaku OUT

A very widely tracked index with large impact on the inclusion names.

Brian Freitas

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