Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (13 Oct 2026)

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY26–30 plan lifts scale ambitions, but ¥6 tn capex and U.S. Steel integration keep free cash flow negative through FY26.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel synergies shift to FY27–28 amid labor, regulatory, and spread pressures, delaying ROCE recovery toward the 9–10% target.</li>
<li>Look cheap on NTM multiples, but elevated leverage, FX sensitivity, and sub-8% forward ROCE limit near-term re-rating.</li>
</ul>


FY26–30 plan lifts scale ambitions, but ¥6 tn capex and U.S. Steel integration keep free cash flow negative through FY26.
U.S. Steel synergies shift to FY27–28 amid labor, regulatory, and spread pressures, delaying ROCE recovery toward the 9–10% target.
Look cheap on NTM multiples, but elevated leverage, FX sensitivity, and sub-8% forward ROCE limit near-term re-rating.


Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)</a> is looking to sell its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> to raise up to US$154m via a cleanup block trade.</li>
<li>This deal represents 1.6 days of ADV and is around 1% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is looking to sell its remaining stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) to raise up to US$154m via a cleanup block trade.
This deal represents 1.6 days of ADV and is around 1% of shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Nippon Steel Placement - Cleanup by Posco Right After Expiry of Previous Deal

<ul>
<li>Guidance cut (Business Profit ¥500 bn → ¥450 bn) as U.S. Steel delivers no profit contribution, overseas spreads weaken, and one-off losses weigh on earnings; domestic operations remain resilient.</li>
<li>Integration drag : $11 bn U.S. Steel modernization plan and rigid U.S. labor terms keep margins diluted and free cash flow negative; deleveraging and ROCE recovery deferred to FY27+.</li>
<li>Valuation rich, patience warranted: Trading at ~19× EV/EBITDA (vs peer median ~10×) with ROCE &lt; 8%; maintain Hold / Underweight until synergy visibility and free-cash-flow inflection emerge post-FY26.</li>
</ul>


Guidance cut (Business Profit ¥500 bn → ¥450 bn) as U.S. Steel delivers no profit contribution, overseas spreads weaken, and one-off losses weigh on earnings; domestic operations remain resilient.
Integration drag : $11 bn U.S. Steel modernization plan and rigid U.S. labor terms keep margins diluted and free cash flow negative; deleveraging and ROCE recovery deferred to FY27+.
Valuation rich, patience warranted: Trading at ~19× EV/EBITDA (vs peer median ~10×) with ROCE &lt; 8%; maintain Hold / Underweight until synergy visibility and free-cash-flow inflection emerge post-FY26.


Nippon Steel: Integration First, Payoff Later — FY2025 Reset Delays the Synergy Story

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For the sixth consecutive year, China's steel output is declining (-3.9%YoY in Jan-May'26). World steel output is declining for the 5th consecutive year, but India/US/Germany steel output is rising.  </li>
<li>Like 1990-95 (post-USSR's fall), world steel output declined 33mn tonnes in 2020-25 led by China's 104mn decline -- caused by its overcapacity. Other countries' output grows, while China reins-in overcapacity. </li>
<li>Having accounted for 90% of increased world steel output in 2000-2020, China is focused on 'new industries'. FAI in steel will decline. Non-China steel producing countries/companies will continue to benefit. </li>
</ul>


For the sixth consecutive year, China's steel output is declining (-3.9%YoY in Jan-May'26). World steel output is declining for the 5th consecutive year, but India/US/Germany steel output is rising.  
Like 1990-95 (post-USSR's fall), world steel output declined 33mn tonnes in 2020-25 led by China's 104mn decline -- caused by its overcapacity. Other countries' output grows, while China reins-in overcapacity. 
Having accounted for 90% of increased world steel output in 2000-2020, China is focused on 'new industries'. FAI in steel will decline. Non-China steel producing countries/companies will continue to benefit. 


Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

Japan

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

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Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (13 Oct 2026)

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred

Despite ambitious scale ambitions and U.S. Steel integration, negative free cash flow is projected through FY26 due to capex etc., delaying ROCE...

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel Placement - Cleanup by Posco Right After Expiry of Previous Deal

Posco Holdings is looking to sell its remaining stake in Nippon Steel (5401 JP) to raise up to US$154m via a cleanup block trade.

Akshat Shah

Nippon Steel: Integration First, Payoff Later — FY2025 Reset Delays the Synergy Story

Business profit guidance cut due to lack of profit contribution from U.S. Steel, weakening overseas spreads, and one-off losses; integration drag...

Rahul Jain

Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (13 Oct 2026)

​Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred

​Despite ambitious scale ambitions and U.S. Steel integration, negative free cash flow is projected through FY26 due to capex etc., delaying ROCE...

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel Placement - Cleanup by Posco Right After Expiry of Previous Deal

Posco Holdings is looking to sell its remaining stake in Nippon Steel (5401 JP) to raise up to US$154m via a cleanup block trade.

Akshat Shah

Nippon Steel: Integration First, Payoff Later — FY2025 Reset Delays the Synergy Story

​Business profit guidance cut due to lack of profit contribution from U.S. Steel, weakening overseas spreads, and one-off losses; integration drag...

Rahul Jain

Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

​China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Despite ambitious scale ambitions and U.S. Steel integration, negative free cash flow is projected through FY26 due to capex etc., delaying ROCE...

Business profit guidance cut due to lack of profit contribution from U.S. Steel, weakening overseas spreads, and one-off losses; integration drag...

China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...